Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-09-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-09-18:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 136190 16272 104 340 18 0 0 0 OW 15 1446 159 1051 337 0 0 0 VODI 0 339 87 1255 1384 3 0 0 ODI 0 39 22 284 2508 809 0 0 CDI 0 0 0 37 607 2889 751 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 4285 15695 102	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-09-20:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 135021 15972 83 338 139 1 0 0 OW 47 2716 127 679 153 46 0 0 VODI 0 619 103 1328 1018 80 8 0 ODI 0 79 24 536 2099 579 34 0 CDI 0 0 0 73 946 2688 606 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 2799 14695 3398	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-09-22:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 134887 17607 171 602 125 0 0 0 OW 1 784 99 743 261 19 0 0 VODI 0 273 73 1278 907 57 0 0 ODI 0 14 2 306 1698 571 0 0 CDI 0 0 1 25 768 2253 639 1 VCDI 0 0 0 1 129 2868 14275 5610	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-09-24:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 133560 17249 116 660 274 36 0 0 OW 18 1204 127 784 498 114 0 0 VODI 0 302 74 1055 1024 244 0 0 ODI 0 16 16 328 1487 590 24 0 CDI 0 0 0 20 893 2061 487 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 107 5058 16153 2469	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 133577 17744 159 861 456 59 0 0 OW 1 759 92 622 382 150 0 0 VODI 0 266 76 1009 894 237 2 0 ODI 0 2 6 330 1541 576 40 0 CDI 0 0 0 25 877 2054 406 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 133 5027 16216 2469

Date: 2020-09-26:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 133677 15449 119 540 296 144 25 0 OW 98 1905 111 808 406 281 109 0 VODI 0 337 64 911 1264 355 63 0 ODI 0 47 25 377 1328 674 113 0 CDI 0 0 0 27 950 1614 780 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 36 5075 17009 2031	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 133441 16627 149 741 350 193 102 0 OW 334 880 92 661 433 263 45 0 VODI 0 213 58 900 1195 335 52 0 ODI 0 18 20 335 1331 677 117 0 CDI 0 0 0 26 947 1618 735 5 VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 5057 17048 2026

Date: 2020-09-28:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 131447 19186 147 546 35 0 0 0 OW 0 716 138 751 210 0 0 0 VODI 0 39 48 1282 898 27 0 0 ODI 0 0 0 181 2480 331 0 0 CDI 0 0 0 0 488 3055 408 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6276 17208 1151	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 131182 17978 148 715 247 61 3 0 OW 243 1572 96 682 476 165 51 0 VODI 22 353 63 890 1026 500 89 0 ODI 0 38 26 376 1208 737 232 0 CDI 0 0 0 97 1094 1339 600 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 60 6887 16641 1151

Date: 2020-09-30:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 131759 18444 168 700 168 0 0 0 OW 0 695 97 640 488 24 0 0 VODI 0 84 47 807 1181 178 2 0 ODI 0 1 1 182 1650 731 87 0 CDI 0 0 0 9 759 2159 728 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 92 7981 15671 1515	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 131615 17033 150 596 169 13 49 0 OW 144 1665 76 672 593 127 195 0 VODI 0 482 62 581 1222 448 256 0 ODI 0 42 23 388 1100 779 252 0 CDI 0 2 2 100 1118 1554 328 0 VCDI 0 0 0 1 136 8152 15408 1515

Date: 2020-10-02:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 132305 16918 153 754 347 5 0 0 OW 3 1107 75 489 716 69 0 0 VODI 0 308 61 787 918 371 23 0 ODI 0 3 6 323 1237 719 264 0 CDI 0 0 0 8 870 1559 1143 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 137 7639 14238 3493	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 132260 15664 141 560 176 18 9 0 OW 48 1811 69 659 803 170 141 0 VODI 0 670 38 553 1001 554 468 0 ODI 0 190 43 402 865 615 448 0 CDI 0 1 4 187 1050 1238 607 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 330 7767 13995 3493

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