Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2020-09-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96994 4349 11 89 14 0 0 0
OW 0 461 20 171 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 251 29 246 62 8 0 0
ODI 0 35 7 211 365 79 7 0
CDI 0 1 0 17 300 1872 544 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 357 1860 723
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97185 4039 8 46 12 0 0 0
OW 0 449 12 194 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 282 35 236 67 3 0 0
ODI 0 46 13 283 261 19 4 0
CDI 0 0 1 37 380 1076 633 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 768 2446 520
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96510 4773 14 71 12 0 0 0
OW 0 258 34 284 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 54 22 347 175 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 65 460 73 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 114 1193 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2199 2379 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96231 4839 22 108 9 0 0 0
OW 0 242 26 210 87 0 0 0
VODI 0 61 20 211 386 20 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 59 288 237 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 112 747 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1904 3234 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96231 4838 22 138 8 0 0 0
OW 0 228 24 197 99 0 0 0
VODI 0 75 22 177 339 20 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 75 284 216 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 152 669 54 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2003 3225 0

Date: 2020-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96254 4791 17 60 13 0 0 0
OW 0 259 19 177 100 0 0 0
VODI 0 95 24 172 287 79 0 0
ODI 0 10 6 75 251 200 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 186 656 81 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 1331 3559 378
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96254 4778 17 132 24 0 0 0
OW 0 245 18 125 100 7 0 0
VODI 0 117 26 133 271 93 0 0
ODI 0 15 5 98 222 188 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 219 598 112 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 1380 3528 378

Date: 2020-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96540 4835 5 29 6 0 0 0
OW 0 207 34 135 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 18 285 130 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 1 38 437 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 223 623 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 774 3221 1428
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96540 4504 13 109 21 0 0 0
OW 0 324 12 78 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 196 20 162 185 9 0 0
ODI 0 67 10 79 205 74 0 0
CDI 0 6 3 64 297 471 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 876 3221 1428

Date: 2020-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95929 5272 16 47 4 0 0 0
OW 0 244 21 141 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 83 24 249 93 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 2 88 284 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 338 228 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 121 1243 3678 926
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95929 4913 19 111 9 0 0 0
OW 0 349 6 91 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 312 28 171 100 0 0 0
ODI 0 34 9 126 259 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 40 338 319 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 124 1143 3682 926

Date: 2020-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95894 4832 32 191 18 0 0 0
OW 0 69 16 204 132 7 0 0
VODI 0 12 15 97 298 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 174 143 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 136 372 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 48 1593 4544 182
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95894 4422 22 196 55 2 0 0
OW 0 195 9 113 162 8 0 0
VODI 0 243 14 81 233 48 0 0
ODI 0 53 18 87 81 166 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 189 345 48 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 86 1561 4533 182


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