Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-09-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19445 6857 51 88 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1302 86 412 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 375 54 751 403 23 0 0
ODI 0 10 18 323 1083 320 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 431 1327 747 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 1329 8416 1931
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19704 5692 56 94 0 0 0 0
OW 6 1962 66 253 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 556 71 811 342 1 0 0
ODI 0 46 27 400 1133 88 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 626 1109 435 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 1063 9274 1957
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19379 7301 69 198 0 0 0 0
OW 0 755 97 310 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 179 51 731 520 10 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 256 1241 211 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 453 1191 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 3104 9093 597
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18758 7308 74 203 58 0 0 0
OW 0 555 78 508 385 0 0 0
VODI 0 155 37 606 714 0 0 0
ODI 0 20 8 212 1114 355 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 258 1285 136 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 4196 8717 83
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18758 7358 85 295 144 0 0 0
OW 0 509 63 414 312 0 0 0
VODI 0 153 36 587 637 1 0 0
ODI 0 18 13 222 1111 304 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 311 1196 106 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 4335 8747 83

Date: 2020-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18373 6859 67 190 37 0 0 0
OW 5 1585 74 336 65 5 0 0
VODI 0 275 53 743 536 39 0 0
ODI 0 42 14 314 1080 261 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 358 961 366 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 1652 9745 1781
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18341 7315 78 230 49 0 0 0
OW 37 1058 59 290 67 8 0 0
VODI 0 329 53 662 512 41 0 0
ODI 0 59 18 393 951 243 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 490 889 347 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 1737 9757 1781

Date: 2020-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18500 7364 72 320 91 27 0 0
OW 0 498 82 389 94 43 0 0
VODI 0 175 32 1057 368 44 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 156 1369 105 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 226 1336 84 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1548 9434 2452
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18498 6210 58 261 191 103 0 0
OW 2 1284 61 384 73 67 0 0
VODI 0 441 49 667 494 64 25 0
ODI 0 102 18 500 787 224 69 0
CDI 0 0 0 110 575 966 180 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 1679 9244 2452

Date: 2020-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18059 7056 102 542 161 0 0 0
OW 0 511 57 436 247 38 0 0
VODI 0 145 28 749 562 127 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 209 939 364 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 401 1103 383 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 2094 8442 3075
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18058 5696 59 256 126 5 0 0
OW 1 978 50 458 292 65 0 0
VODI 0 867 55 659 521 329 0 0
ODI 0 152 17 426 704 366 57 0
CDI 0 19 7 142 555 729 570 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 136 2232 8202 3076

Date: 2020-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17235 6343 87 346 338 202 46 0
OW 67 837 81 603 330 108 85 0
VODI 0 43 18 835 634 161 61 0
ODI 0 0 4 211 961 367 82 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 338 1074 493 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 1724 10419 1725
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17300 5979 74 280 95 3 4 0
OW 2 508 40 222 178 66 53 0
VODI 0 462 45 715 848 557 228 0
ODI 0 237 19 500 739 279 238 0
CDI 0 37 11 242 604 557 552 0
VCDI 0 0 1 38 143 2174 10111 1725


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