Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-09-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 136578 15881 67 181 14 0 0 0
OW 27 2396 140 625 51 0 0 0
VODI 1 755 136 1456 519 31 0 0
ODI 0 45 25 725 2328 402 15 0
CDI 0 1 0 45 1608 4614 1389 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 2301 11844 2833
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 137128 14374 70 146 12 0 0 0
OW 23 3115 106 495 71 0 0 0
VODI 1 1059 164 1418 477 4 0 0
ODI 0 93 41 944 2152 107 4 0
CDI 0 0 1 83 2152 3300 1159 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 2573 13047 2705
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 136921 16912 98 287 12 0 0 0
OW 11 1270 199 756 74 0 0 0
VODI 1 262 87 1645 885 18 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 355 3221 424 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 850 3791 130 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 5520 12675 610
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 135591 17277 117 335 67 0 0 0
OW 9 1135 173 959 475 0 0 0
VODI 0 241 66 1265 1417 20 0 0
ODI 0 21 9 283 2528 976 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 524 3474 295 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 6587 13078 83
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 135595 17377 136 482 152 0 0 0
OW 5 992 134 846 414 0 0 0
VODI 0 285 81 1175 1313 21 0 0
ODI 0 20 14 327 2467 800 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 651 3305 202 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 6931 13171 83

Date: 2020-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 135288 16521 100 314 56 0 0 0
OW 13 2260 141 696 231 5 0 0
VODI 0 454 106 1291 1110 160 0 0
ODI 0 55 20 425 2129 931 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 698 2965 571 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 3488 14761 2189
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 135258 17086 121 444 110 0 0 0
OW 43 1567 111 583 234 16 0 0
VODI 0 557 110 1129 1054 187 0 0
ODI 0 80 25 566 1932 802 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 886 2810 514 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 3734 14811 2189

Date: 2020-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 135036 17810 111 413 97 27 0 0
OW 8 914 152 693 114 43 0 0
VODI 0 259 74 1641 640 44 0 0
ODI 0 12 1 214 2490 166 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 550 3109 184 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 2505 14943 4789
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 135037 16106 102 482 246 103 0 0
OW 7 1949 103 612 187 70 0 0
VODI 0 752 100 1062 905 215 25 0
ODI 0 182 30 636 1534 724 71 0
CDI 0 6 3 174 938 2183 824 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 85 2599 14207 4789

Date: 2020-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134210 17504 151 677 168 0 0 0
OW 1 996 102 711 397 38 0 0
VODI 0 341 82 1109 852 202 0 0
ODI 0 12 10 388 1460 600 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 876 2040 634 1
VCDI 0 0 0 4 145 3794 14470 5045
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134209 15565 105 439 136 5 0 0
OW 2 1715 82 686 455 65 0 0
VODI 0 1348 118 992 887 491 0 0
ODI 0 206 32 599 1223 904 75 0
CDI 0 19 8 188 937 1745 1171 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 260 3464 13862 5046

Date: 2020-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134018 15717 126 542 356 202 46 0
OW 68 1499 125 986 465 115 85 0
VODI 0 310 62 1093 1089 176 61 0
ODI 0 38 25 396 1424 549 82 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 879 2031 541 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 71 5345 16597 1910
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134083 14827 107 487 150 5 4 0
OW 3 1303 78 494 347 74 53 0
VODI 0 1046 85 1018 1331 605 228 0
ODI 0 349 54 664 1221 642 239 0
CDI 0 39 13 335 994 1689 712 0
VCDI 0 0 1 38 241 5403 16176 1910


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