Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-09-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130288 18839 140 507 38 0 0 0
OW 2 1667 188 1410 324 15 0 0
VODI 0 170 74 2394 1739 437 3 0
ODI 0 0 2 355 3589 2997 217 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 1369 8891 3709 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 6060 1597 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132222 17476 114 389 28 0 0 0
OW 0 2095 179 1268 277 30 3 0
VODI 0 465 124 2117 1494 533 61 0
ODI 0 6 2 645 4221 1246 685 0
CDI 0 0 1 42 1631 10335 2009 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 5 3128 4152 62
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 133793 17565 107 296 18 0 0 0
OW 0 1622 183 961 86 0 0 0
VODI 0 285 119 2370 767 15 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 427 4997 475 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 1379 8796 962 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1340 9325 1119
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134580 17190 79 224 12 0 0 0
OW 0 2036 175 783 95 6 0 0
VODI 0 463 120 2046 829 19 3 0
ODI 0 8 8 582 4119 541 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 1910 8063 1547 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1319 7934 2282
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134573 17371 96 283 36 3 0 0
OW 7 1852 164 746 75 8 0 0
VODI 0 463 111 1998 922 15 3 0
ODI 0 11 11 604 3889 642 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 2040 7950 1299 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 1330 8169 2282

Date: 2020-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134654 17179 63 200 6 0 0 0
OW 0 2198 141 834 244 0 0 0
VODI 0 527 136 1610 1132 20 0 0
ODI 0 34 19 435 3205 1245 8 0
CDI 0 1 1 74 1404 7815 2462 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 51 1770 7664 1915
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134654 17473 82 334 42 0 0 0
OW 0 1902 119 724 248 0 0 0
VODI 0 514 139 1552 1222 40 0 0
ODI 0 47 19 473 2968 1353 50 0
CDI 0 3 1 71 1516 7264 2541 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 46 2193 7543 1915

Date: 2020-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 136213 16901 73 99 8 0 0 0
OW 0 1878 166 715 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 319 129 2016 518 0 0 0
ODI 0 20 3 280 4504 149 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 15 1025 8028 1341 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 2734 9267 581
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 136213 16185 76 351 27 0 0 0
OW 0 2037 124 688 102 4 0 0
VODI 0 802 139 1375 1158 26 0 0
ODI 0 94 31 575 2984 850 49 0
CDI 0 2 2 133 1732 6211 2794 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 115 3820 7765 581

Date: 2020-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 136730 16403 67 150 1 0 0 0
OW 26 1983 147 611 74 0 0 0
VODI 3 519 134 1445 710 29 0 0
ODI 0 34 7 469 2553 1011 52 0
CDI 0 2 2 17 798 5325 3047 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 3609 10393 692
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 136718 15361 84 265 30 0 0 0
OW 36 2243 105 544 118 0 0 0
VODI 4 1149 117 1189 915 90 0 0
ODI 1 177 47 562 2033 1270 174 0
CDI 0 11 4 131 943 4396 3764 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 102 4218 9554 692

Date: 2020-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 136578 15881 67 181 14 0 0 0
OW 27 2396 140 625 51 0 0 0
VODI 1 755 136 1456 519 31 0 0
ODI 0 45 25 725 2328 402 15 0
CDI 0 1 0 45 1608 4614 1389 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 2301 11844 2833
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 136585 14892 82 336 5 0 0 0
OW 18 2413 86 531 93 0 0 0
VODI 3 1468 131 1060 747 44 0 0
ODI 0 279 56 849 1961 568 3 0
CDI 0 26 13 255 1540 3842 2207 3
VCDI 0 0 0 1 189 2894 11038 2830


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