Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-08-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17497 5382 56 150 0 0 0 0
OW 159 1845 55 304 11 0 0 0
VODI 1 655 88 2655 1066 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 298 2366 395 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 891 4646 1374 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 2283 3626 1
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19244 4050 23 84 3 0 0 0
OW 376 2011 50 227 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 862 124 2243 927 87 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 383 2004 292 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 773 5701 519 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 4980 835 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19199 6350 66 91 0 0 0 0
OW 9 1168 105 508 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 156 43 1730 624 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 255 2714 177 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 433 3972 2087 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 366 4814 983
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18748 6817 82 205 19 0 0 0
OW 2 1068 100 645 177 0 0 0
VODI 0 84 43 1189 924 131 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 206 1904 661 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 565 3860 1842 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 4509 2056 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18749 7231 89 304 45 0 0 0
OW 1 671 101 595 217 0 0 0
VODI 0 67 35 1170 921 133 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 175 1848 678 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 562 3740 1954 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 4610 1944 0

Date: 2020-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19251 6545 72 249 3 0 0 0
OW 0 1150 99 623 108 0 0 0
VODI 0 80 48 1109 896 56 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 244 1258 935 13 0
CDI 0 1 0 27 651 4432 1405 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 4534 2061 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19251 6962 84 315 8 0 0 0
OW 0 736 92 663 135 0 0 0
VODI 0 77 43 1037 907 65 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 211 1238 944 8 0
CDI 0 1 0 25 626 4422 1424 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 12 4526 2047 0

Date: 2020-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20106 6282 63 159 2 0 0 0
OW 0 908 93 429 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 156 60 1407 275 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 174 2380 73 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 584 3683 314 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1189 7139 364
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20106 6219 63 235 3 0 0 0
OW 0 862 77 609 86 0 0 0
VODI 0 263 75 971 761 4 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 303 1516 436 4 0
CDI 0 0 1 62 879 3422 2243 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 6 1083 5206 364

Date: 2020-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19862 6716 52 131 4 0 0 0
OW 0 985 91 443 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 237 62 1145 297 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 376 1800 155 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 715 3271 492 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1189 6452 1316
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19862 6458 48 218 25 0 0 0
OW 0 1007 74 397 85 0 0 0
VODI 0 458 70 929 656 50 0 0
ODI 0 14 13 441 1234 418 4 0
CDI 0 1 1 154 840 3472 1748 22
VCDI 0 0 0 2 4 675 5192 1294

Date: 2020-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20551 6014 39 123 5 0 0 0
OW 0 1182 73 367 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 276 75 949 359 0 0 0
ODI 0 13 9 436 1383 257 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 71 732 2474 1100 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 784 5826 2698
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20551 5776 37 196 39 0 0 0
OW 0 1128 60 303 103 0 0 0
VODI 0 534 78 824 597 83 0 0
ODI 0 46 20 441 955 438 92 0
CDI 0 2 1 181 833 2445 2553 251
VCDI 0 0 0 1 21 549 4281 2447


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