Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-08-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123577 16780 147 571 66 0 0 0
OW 0 1765 179 1584 136 0 0 0
VODI 0 492 123 4609 2463 11 0 0
ODI 0 62 5 946 8588 2274 423 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 1472 9581 5968 164
VCDI 0 0 0 7 6 991 3559 484
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123553 17688 116 416 41 0 0 0
OW 0 3041 166 1100 92 0 0 0
VODI 0 1107 163 4382 1975 42 0 0
ODI 0 48 13 1099 7863 2785 418 6
CDI 0 0 0 33 1273 9129 4669 1239
VCDI 0 0 0 4 1 394 3573 619
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126058 17521 129 426 21 0 0 0
OW 10 2371 143 813 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 907 115 5006 1169 1 0 0
ODI 0 18 6 609 8010 685 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 1252 10159 1241 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1567 7183 1548
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127919 16480 112 345 29 0 0 0
OW 167 2566 135 790 85 0 0 0
VODI 0 936 139 4436 1635 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 696 6715 1261 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 1289 9208 2500 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 1643 7005 855
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127983 17110 131 478 41 0 0 0
OW 103 2023 126 901 92 0 0 0
VODI 0 844 126 4014 2021 18 0 0
ODI 0 5 6 872 6230 1377 51 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 1381 8722 2187 48
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 2027 7277 807

Date: 2020-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128846 16162 93 288 27 0 0 0
OW 224 2951 135 774 119 0 0 0
VODI 0 914 139 4135 1842 40 0 0
ODI 0 9 6 741 6324 1051 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 1850 9753 1907 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4265 4409 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128960 16967 104 424 39 0 0 0
OW 110 2164 138 974 133 1 0 0
VODI 0 888 125 3705 2081 34 0 0
ODI 0 17 6 828 6015 1214 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 1894 9174 1680 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4686 4636 0

Date: 2020-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130402 17363 90 278 19 0 0 0
OW 36 2147 195 873 62 0 0 0
VODI 0 284 120 3974 768 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 312 7279 479 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 897 12446 772 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 2480 5753 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130180 16292 80 445 70 0 0 0
OW 252 2394 154 918 166 0 0 0
VODI 6 1093 163 3287 2223 125 0 0
ODI 0 15 8 759 4908 1999 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 1649 9476 1183 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 10 3806 5340 0

Date: 2020-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130812 17839 140 414 16 0 0 0
OW 5 1755 168 1326 126 0 0 0
VODI 0 215 89 2929 1683 4 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 494 6245 782 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 983 10408 2900 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2687 4200 813
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130496 16148 97 541 34 0 0 0
OW 225 2582 133 1091 287 0 0 0
VODI 96 1029 148 2641 2835 175 0 0
ODI 0 49 19 837 4294 1881 392 0
CDI 0 2 1 64 1597 7873 2851 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 6 3952 3857 813

Date: 2020-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130288 18839 140 507 38 0 0 0
OW 2 1667 188 1410 324 15 0 0
VODI 0 170 74 2394 1739 437 3 0
ODI 0 0 2 355 3589 2997 217 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 1369 8891 3709 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 6060 1597 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130004 17003 102 469 62 8 0 0
OW 205 2608 143 1178 348 100 0 0
VODI 81 980 128 2251 2299 1032 159 0
ODI 0 83 27 718 2422 3075 871 0
CDI 0 2 4 62 1855 7207 3148 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 82 6978 1348 0


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