Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-08-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13887 4715 76 478 29 0 0 0
OW 0 386 46 650 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 72 23 2576 2131 12 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 240 5162 361 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 74 1659 8044 3555 4
VCDI 0 0 0 13 70 332 1209 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13897 4895 83 469 70 0 0 0
OW 0 524 25 993 109 7 0 0
VODI 0 188 43 2733 2102 46 0 0
ODI 0 11 1 235 4635 946 0 0
CDI 0 5 1 97 1008 6222 5025 23
VCDI 0 0 0 16 103 110 970 274
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13859 5700 90 370 13 0 0 0
OW 0 287 62 632 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 163 45 3698 1087 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 475 5724 164 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 1020 6111 1168 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 8 540 4422 179
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14135 5779 79 362 3 0 0 0
OW 0 550 84 1082 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 178 42 3486 1162 5 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 873 4504 265 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 1071 6179 1281 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 5 1938 2783 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14135 5759 86 394 4 0 0 0
OW 0 469 61 863 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 278 57 3792 1254 5 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 752 4393 194 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 1079 6008 1231 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 9 2180 2833 0

Date: 2020-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14614 5649 82 321 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1480 98 838 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 384 77 3268 1097 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 631 3783 402 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 778 6955 1136 33
VCDI 0 0 0 5 5 628 2736 834
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14614 5639 85 349 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1187 80 806 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 683 88 3328 1177 3 0 0
ODI 0 4 4 577 3695 406 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 774 6803 935 19
VCDI 0 0 0 5 8 780 2937 848

Date: 2020-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16210 5282 86 175 3 0 0 0
OW 6 1589 50 291 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 935 107 3281 557 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 207 4188 147 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 463 5347 548 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 627 4805 933
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16091 4731 79 239 4 0 0 0
OW 105 1874 66 378 9 0 0 0
VODI 20 1193 90 2732 1302 15 0 0
ODI 0 8 8 587 3049 342 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 846 5211 2450 80
VCDI 0 0 0 3 2 553 2902 853

Date: 2020-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16417 6007 70 184 1 0 0 0
OW 3 1770 54 269 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 782 86 2864 850 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 283 3349 93 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 786 4669 1073 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 1316 4667 228
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16208 5017 81 301 7 0 0 0
OW 195 1915 34 269 88 0 0 0
VODI 17 1616 94 2486 1429 15 0 0
ODI 0 11 1 516 2616 205 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 838 5162 2744 21
VCDI 0 0 0 2 29 696 2996 207

Date: 2020-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17497 5382 56 150 0 0 0 0
OW 159 1845 55 304 11 0 0 0
VODI 1 655 88 2655 1066 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 298 2366 395 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 891 4646 1374 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 2283 3626 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16777 4939 88 332 39 0 0 0
OW 590 1645 21 240 176 0 0 0
VODI 290 1296 86 2309 1474 203 0 0
ODI 0 2 4 503 1847 550 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 63 739 5317 2696 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 67 1257 2304 1


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