Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-08-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 121228 16453 175 905 89 8 0 0
OW 0 876 105 1264 216 19 0 0
VODI 0 233 53 3667 3290 109 0 0
ODI 0 17 4 438 9620 4053 2 0
CDI 0 0 2 106 2416 15339 4733 4
VCDI 0 0 0 13 70 332 1209 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 120900 17143 175 852 116 0 0 0
OW 0 1189 92 1543 318 9 0 0
VODI 0 357 95 3823 3600 150 0 0
ODI 0 29 4 444 8524 5868 316 0
CDI 0 10 4 146 1742 12535 5568 23
VCDI 0 0 0 16 103 110 970 274
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 122021 17367 158 679 59 0 0 0
OW 0 828 156 1165 93 0 0 0
VODI 0 284 100 5216 1959 10 0 0
ODI 0 27 3 666 10593 1134 91 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 1615 12312 4033 33
VCDI 0 0 0 2 8 554 5570 286
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 122472 17556 149 626 32 0 0 0
OW 0 1275 169 1672 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 384 101 5051 2134 14 0 0
ODI 0 57 6 1308 8915 1739 427 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 1675 10914 4811 8
VCDI 0 0 0 6 5 2195 3283 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 122469 17577 161 673 38 0 0 0
OW 3 1111 151 1527 84 0 0 0
VODI 0 527 105 5244 2268 64 0 0
ODI 0 52 8 1206 8488 1986 443 0
CDI 0 5 0 17 1929 10327 4326 8
VCDI 0 0 0 5 9 2485 3752 0

Date: 2020-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 122995 17802 140 530 20 0 0 0
OW 0 2364 185 1444 66 0 0 0
VODI 0 644 143 4790 2127 12 0 0
ODI 0 56 4 975 8033 2794 283 4
CDI 0 0 0 30 1253 10552 4312 772
VCDI 0 0 0 5 8 690 3119 896
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 122994 17813 152 603 31 0 0 0
OW 1 1965 163 1462 90 0 0 0
VODI 0 1029 146 4755 2281 21 0 0
ODI 0 53 11 925 7633 3095 269 10
CDI 0 6 0 24 1461 10061 3912 727
VCDI 0 0 0 5 11 871 3533 935

Date: 2020-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 125893 16797 146 385 18 0 0 0
OW 6 2288 143 824 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 1078 148 5181 1037 3 0 0
ODI 0 29 3 385 8787 549 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 786 10802 984 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 779 8041 1877
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 125773 15764 142 559 48 0 0 0
OW 106 2649 133 993 158 0 0 0
VODI 20 1730 145 4101 2285 129 0 0
ODI 0 44 20 1102 6769 3274 638 4
CDI 0 5 0 45 1417 8052 5222 928
VCDI 0 0 0 3 2 678 3165 945

Date: 2020-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 126914 17131 132 379 33 0 0 0
OW 3 2489 142 826 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 941 135 4605 1501 14 0 0
ODI 0 4 2 676 7375 921 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 1299 9733 1832 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 1925 6988 930
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 126704 15406 146 619 82 0 0 0
OW 196 2739 91 871 212 14 0 0
VODI 17 2353 151 3698 2573 234 0 0
ODI 0 67 23 1264 5999 3064 664 20
CDI 0 0 0 59 1394 8462 5013 700
VCDI 0 0 0 2 29 819 3153 210

Date: 2020-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 128333 16384 97 316 26 0 0 0
OW 159 2793 126 802 104 0 0 0
VODI 1 876 149 4315 1743 23 0 0
ODI 0 3 5 762 6292 1327 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 1676 9274 2356 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 2845 5671 521
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 127588 15139 133 565 123 7 0 0
OW 615 2613 77 749 281 16 0 0
VODI 290 2215 140 3607 2828 392 0 0
ODI 0 89 27 1239 5120 3361 376 30
CDI 0 0 0 78 1430 8422 5140 497
VCDI 0 0 0 11 67 1271 2511 1


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