Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-08-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11638 5793 118 593 44 0 0 0
OW 0 434 36 620 219 0 0 0
VODI 0 80 14 675 1098 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 0 92 8190 381 0 0
CDI 0 3 1 21 2077 12052 1126 0
VCDI 0 1 0 16 238 210 84 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11951 5712 134 675 49 0 0 0
OW 0 305 37 661 252 0 0 0
VODI 0 83 13 856 1440 91 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 89 6580 1865 0 0
CDI 0 3 3 16 1268 10586 2817 131
VCDI 0 0 0 11 180 52 0 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12277 5891 104 447 107 0 0 0
OW 0 148 47 559 106 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 4 1980 1221 3 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 60 6257 256 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 1838 9719 2772 34
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 314 1584 29
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13548 4903 79 479 32 0 0 0
OW 0 318 48 576 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 63 15 2379 1982 6 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 135 5384 351 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 1940 8351 3427 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 276 1371 7
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13548 4978 88 550 35 0 0 0
OW 0 282 44 510 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 10 2268 1748 6 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 235 5550 357 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 67 1995 8281 3425 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 53 340 1373 7

Date: 2020-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13841 4870 75 491 22 0 0 0
OW 0 451 31 778 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 117 25 2769 2182 9 0 0
ODI 0 8 3 234 4907 676 1 0
CDI 0 2 0 105 1503 6362 4826 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 92 169 1232 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13841 4989 78 555 23 0 0 0
OW 0 367 26 781 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 81 25 2584 2024 7 0 0
ODI 0 5 4 349 4753 510 19 0
CDI 0 6 1 106 1789 6543 4749 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 117 156 1291 0

Date: 2020-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14210 5167 77 386 13 0 0 0
OW 0 255 69 473 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 51 16 4248 548 4 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 258 6189 173 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 716 6588 1192 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 14 250 4616 294
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14210 4912 83 533 19 0 0 0
OW 0 400 33 1025 123 3 0 0
VODI 0 132 39 3063 1800 39 0 0
ODI 0 10 5 642 4155 569 36 0
CDI 0 19 2 131 1308 6308 4615 176
VCDI 0 2 0 15 88 96 1157 118

Date: 2020-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13962 5794 78 348 18 0 0 0
OW 0 394 83 863 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 231 40 3698 963 6 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 908 4928 184 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 1334 5430 1587 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 6 956 3661 359
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13962 5468 72 499 19 0 0 0
OW 0 682 59 1375 92 11 0 0
VODI 0 227 54 3031 1430 42 0 0
ODI 0 24 11 712 4089 359 58 0
CDI 0 21 7 216 1593 6141 4401 27
VCDI 0 0 0 3 37 23 789 332

Date: 2020-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14579 5477 79 345 9 0 0 0
OW 0 939 79 1065 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 221 64 3380 1168 7 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 715 4135 371 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 926 5972 1868 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 6 926 3041 453
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14579 5161 70 517 11 0 0 0
OW 0 1092 84 1578 110 24 0 0
VODI 0 327 53 2481 1292 42 0 0
ODI 0 29 11 741 3584 566 206 16
CDI 0 33 5 205 1236 6510 4138 437
VCDI 0 0 0 5 24 134 565 0


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