Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-08-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114150 21215 264 1297 115 0 0 0
OW 0 757 90 1406 514 3 0 0
VODI 0 101 26 1170 2803 29 0 0
ODI 0 12 0 174 12008 3444 25 0
CDI 0 3 1 28 2570 22503 1791 0
VCDI 0 1 0 16 238 210 84 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116471 19417 263 1348 127 0 0 0
OW 4 632 86 1474 635 2 0 0
VODI 0 121 26 1421 3655 155 0 0
ODI 0 6 1 197 10078 5786 39 0
CDI 0 3 3 24 2037 19646 3017 131
VCDI 0 0 0 11 180 52 0 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116997 19721 244 1137 173 0 0 0
OW 0 431 97 1220 308 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 16 2833 2235 23 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 168 11072 2105 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 80 2727 20070 3360 34
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 314 1584 29
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119335 17989 203 1052 86 0 0 0
OW 0 718 104 1175 301 0 0 0
VODI 0 197 39 3310 3199 55 0 0
ODI 0 7 7 265 10025 3480 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 78 2356 17350 4000 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 276 1371 7
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119333 18104 216 1158 118 0 0 0
OW 2 624 88 1036 306 0 0 0
VODI 0 167 41 3184 3020 115 0 0
ODI 0 15 8 416 9729 3153 2 0
CDI 0 1 0 86 2788 17534 3995 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 53 359 1374 7

Date: 2020-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121981 15967 156 866 68 0 0 0
OW 0 1052 98 1331 268 0 0 0
VODI 0 269 63 3854 3525 95 0 0
ODI 0 21 6 422 8496 5528 243 0
CDI 0 3 2 144 2368 12874 5839 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 92 169 1232 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121976 16115 158 963 96 0 0 0
OW 5 901 96 1282 283 1 0 0
VODI 0 263 60 3639 3364 216 0 0
ODI 0 24 8 582 8275 4552 217 0
CDI 0 9 3 149 2681 13741 5806 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 118 156 1291 0

Date: 2020-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121516 17449 152 700 55 0 0 0
OW 0 819 149 995 83 0 0 0
VODI 0 156 70 5813 1218 13 0 0
ODI 0 22 4 446 11362 760 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 1200 15118 1945 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 14 334 6317 294
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121509 16904 171 962 142 2 0 0
OW 7 1028 93 1555 353 24 0 0
VODI 0 437 93 4245 3206 339 0 0
ODI 0 36 12 1041 7769 5038 384 0
CDI 0 39 6 180 2374 10726 6721 176
VCDI 0 2 0 15 88 96 1157 118

Date: 2020-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122459 17221 147 640 54 0 0 0
OW 0 1055 171 1404 95 0 0 0
VODI 0 375 95 5158 1984 10 0 0
ODI 0 37 8 1202 9662 1432 154 0
CDI 0 1 0 16 2034 10707 4985 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 6 1181 4393 359
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122450 16502 146 878 127 0 0 0
OW 9 1427 123 1870 382 11 0 0
VODI 0 657 125 4185 3212 360 24 0
ODI 0 53 16 1177 7502 4175 2223 0
CDI 0 50 11 310 2575 8761 6496 27
VCDI 0 0 0 3 37 23 789 332

Date: 2020-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123577 16780 147 571 66 0 0 0
OW 0 1765 179 1584 136 0 0 0
VODI 0 492 123 4609 2463 11 0 0
ODI 0 62 5 946 8588 2274 423 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 1472 9581 5968 164
VCDI 0 0 0 7 6 991 3559 484
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123571 15999 136 845 143 0 0 0
OW 6 1995 150 2007 460 28 0 0
VODI 0 953 136 3537 3031 922 81 0
ODI 0 87 27 1093 6837 3586 3811 104
CDI 0 65 5 245 2236 8187 5493 544
VCDI 0 0 0 5 24 134 565 0


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