Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-07-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8585 7614 119 676 92 0 0 0
OW 0 309 64 423 140 4 0 0
VODI 0 40 32 1006 791 10 0 0
ODI 0 44 0 80 3229 382 0 0
CDI 0 41 2 13 4378 10004 2973 0
VCDI 0 22 0 15 343 2136 2299 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8171 8165 131 710 72 0 0 0
OW 0 340 71 461 213 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 22 942 900 0 0 0
ODI 0 32 2 93 3377 1279 0 0
CDI 0 25 5 10 3853 11482 2365 0
VCDI 0 4 0 5 421 2373 290 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9823 7092 139 529 64 0 0 0
OW 0 316 66 510 130 0 0 0
VODI 0 91 19 887 730 0 0 0
ODI 0 18 0 87 7443 222 0 0
CDI 0 17 2 17 3257 13007 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 265 662 441 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11445 5831 118 501 82 0 0 0
OW 0 488 32 581 216 1 0 0
VODI 0 75 17 592 1018 4 0 0
ODI 0 19 0 64 8111 393 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 34 2426 11617 1471 0
VCDI 0 1 1 4 312 239 166 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11445 5862 124 563 134 0 0 0
OW 0 431 26 528 203 1 0 0
VODI 0 101 17 614 1255 7 0 0
ODI 0 18 0 33 7868 392 0 0
CDI 0 6 1 33 2418 11568 1422 0
VCDI 0 1 2 5 287 286 215 0

Date: 2020-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11925 5591 127 673 40 0 0 0
OW 0 357 33 632 261 1 0 0
VODI 0 89 14 800 1225 54 0 0
ODI 0 9 0 74 7684 845 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 18 1930 11234 1873 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 180 161 13 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11925 5553 134 762 70 0 0 0
OW 0 407 29 599 249 2 0 0
VODI 0 75 11 747 1498 69 0 0
ODI 0 10 0 71 7410 908 0 0
CDI 0 3 1 17 1915 11036 1833 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 178 280 53 0

Date: 2020-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12295 5705 116 495 39 0 0 0
OW 0 218 45 456 84 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 5 1603 990 3 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 46 6715 393 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 51 805 11531 2068 53
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 124 1887 103
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12295 5583 127 746 113 0 0 0
OW 0 291 29 525 244 5 0 0
VODI 0 64 10 906 1807 270 4 0
ODI 0 4 1 421 5177 2463 33 0
CDI 0 4 3 28 1165 9137 3918 156
VCDI 0 0 0 25 136 176 0 0

Date: 2020-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13366 4956 82 460 50 0 0 0
OW 0 194 47 619 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 10 2180 1659 4 0 0
ODI 0 6 1 68 5726 375 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 105 1971 8875 3249 37
VCDI 0 0 0 2 25 344 1358 35
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13366 4865 98 736 61 0 0 0
OW 0 228 29 596 161 2 0 0
VODI 0 69 11 1314 2327 250 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 675 5537 1256 18 0
CDI 0 5 3 52 1300 8068 4589 72
VCDI 0 0 0 61 91 22 0 0

Date: 2020-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13887 4715 76 478 29 0 0 0
OW 0 386 46 650 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 72 23 2576 2131 12 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 240 5162 361 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 74 1659 8044 3555 4
VCDI 0 0 0 13 70 332 1209 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13887 4725 93 658 48 0 0 0
OW 0 321 34 592 127 0 0 0
VODI 0 123 16 1604 2749 69 0 0
ODI 0 6 1 1081 4787 1059 37 0
CDI 0 2 1 62 1324 7621 4729 4
VCDI 0 0 0 34 72 0 0 0


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