Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-07-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107946 24720 273 1397 169 0 0 0
OW 3 1069 183 1340 437 14 0 0
VODI 0 131 56 1845 2248 99 0 0
ODI 0 44 0 105 5796 3406 24 0
CDI 0 41 2 21 4753 19412 6699 0
VCDI 0 22 0 15 343 2136 2299 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108317 24756 280 1490 206 0 0 0
OW 0 1116 172 1424 612 16 0 0
VODI 0 97 34 1553 2661 132 0 0
ODI 0 32 2 129 6323 4644 125 0
CDI 0 25 5 34 4235 22446 3088 0
VCDI 0 4 0 5 421 2374 290 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111539 22974 290 1314 115 0 0 0
OW 1 666 137 1252 290 3 0 0
VODI 0 105 31 1565 1648 21 0 0
ODI 0 18 0 139 11977 1483 0 0
CDI 0 17 2 20 4392 25010 668 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 265 663 441 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113528 21555 272 1309 134 0 0 0
OW 0 808 96 1307 469 4 0 0
VODI 0 88 30 1107 2429 34 0 0
ODI 0 19 0 143 12097 2915 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 41 2919 22607 2407 0
VCDI 0 1 1 4 312 239 166 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113528 21689 300 1492 188 0 0 0
OW 0 639 70 1169 455 3 0 0
VODI 0 123 28 1085 2737 40 0 0
ODI 0 18 0 119 11706 2853 102 0
CDI 0 6 1 41 2987 22613 2237 0
VCDI 0 1 2 5 287 290 234 0

Date: 2020-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114678 20859 261 1348 165 2 0 0
OW 0 682 78 1422 595 18 0 0
VODI 0 131 31 1315 3116 141 0 0
ODI 0 9 1 175 11476 4261 19 0
CDI 0 2 1 27 2687 21003 2171 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 180 161 13 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114678 20905 273 1616 203 6 0 0
OW 0 648 72 1205 611 17 0 0
VODI 0 117 24 1260 3451 170 0 0
ODI 0 10 2 176 11026 3947 67 0
CDI 0 3 1 29 2750 21166 2083 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 178 280 53 0

Date: 2020-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116782 19599 256 1147 71 0 0 0
OW 2 480 98 1136 218 0 0 0
VODI 0 49 17 2531 1766 14 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 139 11899 990 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 57 1517 23488 2539 53
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 124 1955 103
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116784 19468 270 1634 231 0 0 0
OW 0 560 75 1198 699 8 0 0
VODI 0 94 24 1495 4285 396 4 0
ODI 0 7 3 590 8029 6702 212 0
CDI 0 4 3 68 2100 17334 4278 156
VCDI 0 0 0 25 136 176 0 0

Date: 2020-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118568 18461 244 1057 136 0 0 0
OW 0 532 94 1255 278 0 0 0
VODI 0 67 27 3023 2891 23 0 0
ODI 0 7 3 177 10160 3270 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 121 2611 18160 4081 37
VCDI 0 0 0 2 25 344 1358 35
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118568 18320 249 1525 336 1 0 0
OW 0 609 84 1158 733 31 0 0
VODI 0 126 30 1979 4918 627 0 0
ODI 0 7 3 828 7952 6463 68 0
CDI 0 5 3 84 2071 14653 5371 72
VCDI 0 0 0 61 91 22 0 0

Date: 2020-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121228 16453 175 905 89 8 0 0
OW 0 876 105 1264 216 19 0 0
VODI 0 233 53 3667 3290 109 0 0
ODI 0 17 4 438 9620 4053 2 0
CDI 0 0 2 106 2416 15339 4733 4
VCDI 0 0 0 13 70 332 1209 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121214 16474 204 1353 240 73 0 0
OW 14 793 79 1139 634 80 0 0
VODI 0 278 47 2457 5491 608 24 0
ODI 0 27 5 1275 6983 5745 394 0
CDI 0 7 4 135 2281 13354 5526 4
VCDI 0 0 0 34 72 0 0 0


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