Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-07-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102726 25199 303 1509 265 0 0 0
OW 0 1407 204 1814 369 11 0 0
VODI 1 235 108 2537 2821 81 0 0
ODI 0 19 0 125 4188 5381 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 13 907 22981 2898 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 260 9856 825 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104114 25009 258 1496 269 10 0 0
OW 3 1730 196 1572 307 21 0 0
VODI 0 324 116 2450 3427 197 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 87 3139 7374 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 14 1814 21932 1298 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 126 5739 3878 134
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105222 26397 283 1286 230 0 0 0
OW 1 915 177 1345 210 8 0 0
VODI 0 129 62 2527 1533 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 251 5742 1919 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 77 2254 23192 5202 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 316 3975 3737 32
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107547 24942 270 1279 155 0 0 0
OW 8 1000 182 1330 380 12 0 0
VODI 0 149 46 2248 1876 85 0 0
ODI 0 14 2 209 5911 2618 5 0
CDI 0 8 3 51 3756 21206 6119 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 301 1611 3655 64
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107554 25061 291 1460 203 0 0 0
OW 1 842 151 1215 345 17 0 0
VODI 0 188 56 2174 1992 97 0 0
ODI 0 14 1 214 5753 2989 151 0
CDI 0 8 4 54 3785 20727 5771 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 301 1702 3857 64

Date: 2020-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108451 24430 238 1353 322 0 0 0
OW 0 1056 189 1420 518 17 0 0
VODI 0 115 45 1732 2424 67 0 0
ODI 0 32 1 117 5986 4077 85 0
CDI 0 71 0 58 4381 20312 5610 0
VCDI 0 34 2 39 377 1904 1585 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108451 24543 267 1617 397 3 0 0
OW 0 854 129 1114 508 15 0 0
VODI 0 201 76 1777 2425 167 0 0
ODI 0 28 1 115 5913 4610 169 0
CDI 0 75 0 58 4383 19504 5236 0
VCDI 0 37 2 38 382 2078 1875 0

Date: 2020-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109471 24483 285 1338 121 0 0 0
OW 0 731 166 1021 238 2 0 0
VODI 0 109 37 1957 1240 18 0 0
ODI 0 25 3 120 11355 975 0 0
CDI 0 16 0 13 2894 26698 1316 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 270 1259 885 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109471 24132 308 1740 332 1 0 0
OW 0 920 108 967 647 21 0 0
VODI 0 250 71 1579 2674 328 0 0
ODI 0 24 0 129 7356 4797 76 0
CDI 0 37 4 28 4719 22334 1925 0
VCDI 0 1 0 8 390 1471 200 0

Date: 2020-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113025 21900 264 1235 131 0 0 0
OW 0 785 124 1275 365 4 0 0
VODI 0 125 32 1232 2058 29 0 0
ODI 0 14 0 153 12632 1779 0 0
CDI 0 12 3 32 3276 23890 1605 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 292 340 433 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112963 21439 268 1480 405 1 0 0
OW 62 840 84 1033 782 22 0 0
VODI 0 501 67 1150 3588 336 0 0
ODI 0 30 1 197 8953 4084 373 0
CDI 0 25 2 52 4672 21456 1665 0
VCDI 0 1 1 18 354 143 0 0

Date: 2020-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114150 21215 264 1297 115 0 0 0
OW 0 757 90 1406 514 3 0 0
VODI 0 101 26 1170 2803 29 0 0
ODI 0 12 0 174 12008 3444 25 0
CDI 0 3 1 28 2570 22503 1791 0
VCDI 0 1 0 16 238 210 84 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114120 20842 259 1553 491 8 0 0
OW 30 691 72 1209 847 66 0 0
VODI 0 500 46 1002 4043 793 4 0
ODI 0 53 3 257 8569 5035 493 0
CDI 0 2 1 48 4073 20281 1403 0
VCDI 0 1 0 22 225 6 0 0


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