Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2020-07-16

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-07-20

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7 2215 40 121 9 0 0 0
OW 0 290 52 328 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 67 29 613 585 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 2315 763 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 200 20358 1159 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3859 3332 475
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7 2274 48 254 51 0 0 0
OW 0 264 52 370 185 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 21 461 1339 365 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 1406 5453 51 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 169 14390 1201 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4772 3239 475

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 330 10 54 1 0 0 0
OW 0 4 3 46 1 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 42 63 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 322 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 153 1355 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 191 423 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 320 7 69 2 0 0 0
OW 0 11 4 34 10 3 0 0
VODI 0 3 2 25 93 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 176 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 250 1211 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 200 517 0 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20 821 15 54 0 0 0 0
OW 0 104 27 154 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 6 333 111 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 1211 320 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1457 4568 215 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 120 409 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20 828 25 138 3 0 0 0
OW 0 81 12 194 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 11 191 263 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 860 366 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1632 4476 411 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 167 213 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1734 1809 9 21 0 0 0 0
OW 0 113 25 44 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 14 282 82 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 576 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 22 897 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1734 1713 12 26 0 0 0 0
OW 0 187 21 65 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 15 270 647 178 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 26 695 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 29 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 676 3901 31 78 0 0 0 0
OW 2 383 40 235 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 50 20 848 224 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 659 53 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 33 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 652 3443 32 76 0 0 0 0
OW 26 456 19 179 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 396 40 748 305 0 0 0
ODI 0 26 0 164 569 84 0 0
CDI 0 13 0 0 11 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2961 2228 10 46 7 0 0 0
OW 0 1 1 23 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 32 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2961 2227 11 62 7 0 0 0
OW 0 2 0 30 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 9 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3676 1896 11 55 2 0 0 0
OW 0 81 13 59 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 3 109 80 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 141 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 117 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3676 1942 18 112 41 0 0 0
OW 0 34 5 63 71 6 0 0
VODI 0 8 4 47 77 58 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 63 68 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 35 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9573 1691 2 4 1 0 0 0
OW 0 20 3 5 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 7 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9573 1680 2 5 1 0 0 0
OW 0 30 2 3 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 3 8 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7022 2566 20 55 1 0 0 0
OW 0 48 13 135 12 3 0 0
VODI 0 4 3 153 113 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 691 153 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 70 615 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7022 2563 22 89 7 6 0 0
OW 0 38 11 164 74 22 0 0
VODI 0 17 3 90 364 56 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 330 323 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 112 375 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11325 1435 15 139 68 6 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11325 1435 15 138 68 6 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3469 2043 16 96 19 0 0 0
OW 0 19 8 98 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 25 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3469 2062 24 172 20 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 36 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 13 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3694 3798 71 526 93 0 0 0
OW 0 9 1 127 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 34 89 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 97 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3694 3787 70 518 124 0 0 0
OW 0 20 2 125 52 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 44 136 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17852 2144 28 88 19 0 0 0
OW 0 0 3 38 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 17 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17852 2120 26 84 21 0 0 0
OW 0 24 5 49 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 10 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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