Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-07-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4114 7435 178 1347 384 42 0 0
OW 0 398 78 1537 408 32 0 0
VODI 0 81 16 759 1489 46 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 1994 1308 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 467 10926 147 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 88 10660 1888 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5243 7537 144 1134 253 36 0 0
OW 0 380 64 1123 686 25 0 0
VODI 0 48 16 595 1617 56 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 1732 1422 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1277 10405 221 0
VCDI 0 1 0 8 158 9738 1923 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7280 7072 128 638 109 0 0 0
OW 0 343 68 869 159 5 0 0
VODI 0 87 13 966 595 23 0 0
ODI 0 18 0 69 2670 850 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 4 626 10488 1923 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 188 9162 1508 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7357 7458 157 760 120 0 0 0
OW 0 401 65 749 161 1 0 0
VODI 0 26 22 923 918 13 0 0
ODI 0 25 0 48 1900 1517 0 0
CDI 0 24 0 7 517 11528 1394 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 217 8687 867 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7357 7515 175 928 161 0 0 0
OW 0 314 45 611 120 1 0 0
VODI 0 55 24 898 1222 15 0 0
ODI 0 25 0 43 1576 1437 0 0
CDI 0 25 0 7 543 11716 1390 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 211 8577 871 0

Date: 2020-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7175 8057 140 795 129 0 0 0
OW 0 485 63 580 117 4 0 0
VODI 0 36 40 991 1063 11 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 64 1601 2102 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1011 11781 613 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 237 7399 1369 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7175 8184 159 876 139 0 0 0
OW 0 319 52 526 102 4 0 0
VODI 0 75 32 981 1240 42 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 47 1353 2013 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1078 11887 578 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 246 7351 1404 0

Date: 2020-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7064 8545 127 785 113 0 0 0
OW 0 263 62 428 63 1 0 0
VODI 0 15 27 923 404 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 74 2650 442 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 1663 12730 1100 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 191 3950 3699 475
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7064 8408 142 900 150 0 0 0
OW 0 358 42 516 133 4 0 0
VODI 0 57 32 729 1478 219 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 1237 2379 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 1886 10006 1413 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 200 4522 3386 475

Date: 2020-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8337 7795 122 486 94 0 0 0
OW 0 325 44 357 134 1 0 0
VODI 0 55 42 1004 667 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 121 2731 480 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 73 1989 11234 2869 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 132 2222 4211 336
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8337 7719 124 549 153 0 0 0
OW 0 367 56 569 285 1 0 0
VODI 0 89 28 778 1363 380 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 58 1968 1826 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 78 1844 9063 2871 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 134 2668 4209 336

Date: 2020-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8585 7614 119 676 92 0 0 0
OW 0 309 64 423 140 4 0 0
VODI 0 40 32 1006 791 10 0 0
ODI 0 44 0 80 3229 382 0 0
CDI 0 41 2 13 4378 10004 2973 0
VCDI 0 22 0 15 343 2136 2299 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8585 7565 128 782 152 2 0 0
OW 0 332 70 671 388 3 0 0
VODI 0 63 17 666 1539 530 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 62 2823 1101 0 0
CDI 0 80 2 19 3717 8909 2409 0
VCDI 0 26 0 13 354 1991 2863 0


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