Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-07-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95629 24389 400 2490 503 43 0 0
OW 36 1264 205 2927 924 57 0 0
VODI 0 203 51 2144 5016 294 0 0
ODI 0 10 1 91 4659 6948 0 0
CDI 1 0 0 27 606 19381 845 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 88 15296 2516 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97121 25243 339 2164 386 37 0 0
OW 11 1426 188 2851 1347 48 0 0
VODI 0 290 52 1778 5301 1019 0 0
ODI 1 5 1 61 3501 7787 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 1446 17071 1444 0
VCDI 0 1 0 8 158 13316 2613 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101747 24079 343 1592 207 1 0 0
OW 1 911 171 2218 366 14 0 0
VODI 0 141 33 2430 2187 47 0 0
ODI 0 18 0 142 6221 2293 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 17 980 23573 2986 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 188 11229 2854 54
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102427 24850 332 1545 224 0 0 0
OW 0 1272 186 1936 395 4 0 0
VODI 1 165 80 2512 2700 60 0 0
ODI 0 25 0 105 4560 4631 0 0
CDI 0 24 0 18 818 23694 2576 1
VCDI 0 0 0 4 217 10304 1382 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102427 25098 379 1914 301 0 0 0
OW 0 997 151 1750 379 7 0 0
VODI 1 191 68 2263 2900 92 0 0
ODI 0 25 0 165 4203 4175 22 0
CDI 0 25 0 24 920 24083 2341 1
VCDI 0 0 0 4 211 10336 1595 0

Date: 2020-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103061 25581 289 1438 253 3 0 0
OW 0 1577 199 1667 341 16 0 0
VODI 1 239 111 2542 3014 81 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 118 3927 6180 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 1275 23248 1611 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 237 8522 1501 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103061 26035 344 1777 316 5 0 0
OW 1 1045 155 1503 358 17 0 0
VODI 0 316 100 2278 2971 269 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 191 3753 5772 1 0
CDI 0 0 1 26 1403 23349 1545 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 246 8638 1566 0

Date: 2020-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103869 26877 278 1337 220 6 0 0
OW 2 1072 189 1292 146 4 0 0
VODI 0 140 77 2495 1398 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 101 6016 1368 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 1916 27943 1402 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 191 4402 3741 475
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103845 26394 312 1743 345 12 0 0
OW 26 1147 133 1313 454 32 0 0
VODI 0 509 99 1916 3268 675 0 0
ODI 0 26 0 239 3444 7050 51 0
CDI 0 13 0 70 2176 20518 1640 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 200 5462 3452 475

Date: 2020-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106903 25321 281 1155 191 0 0 0
OW 1 973 140 1333 319 11 0 0
VODI 0 156 74 2167 1973 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 154 5514 2641 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 77 2382 23671 4677 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 132 2222 4211 336
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106860 24736 282 1490 376 15 0 0
OW 32 1136 131 1261 851 44 0 0
VODI 12 555 82 1824 3431 1072 0 0
ODI 0 22 0 198 3645 7293 106 0
CDI 0 1 0 104 2074 17125 4390 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 134 3025 4392 336

Date: 2020-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107946 24720 273 1397 169 0 0 0
OW 3 1069 183 1340 437 14 0 0
VODI 0 131 56 1845 2248 99 0 0
ODI 0 44 0 105 5796 3406 24 0
CDI 0 41 2 21 4753 19412 6699 0
VCDI 0 22 0 15 343 2136 2299 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107902 24160 302 1745 506 25 0 0
OW 47 1095 141 1395 1040 48 0 0
VODI 0 658 66 1384 3767 1567 0 0
ODI 0 8 3 146 4113 6735 704 0
CDI 0 80 2 40 3966 14701 5129 0
VCDI 0 26 0 13 354 1991 3189 0


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