Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-07-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1285 7488 185 1415 184 4 0 0
OW 1 287 69 1038 949 15 0 0
VODI 0 52 11 576 2325 73 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 134 2134 307 1 0
CDI 0 11 3 53 1488 9965 94 0
VCDI 0 47 0 25 854 14320 464 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1742 7830 197 1385 430 27 0 0
OW 17 288 56 943 1657 68 0 0
VODI 0 64 15 719 1209 137 0 0
ODI 0 17 2 187 1837 251 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 54 1621 10183 2 0
VCDI 0 1 0 3 491 14377 49 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3313 7083 175 1581 200 28 0 0
OW 0 197 37 1573 197 19 0 0
VODI 0 147 19 1195 1329 34 0 0
ODI 0 69 0 98 2928 306 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 526 10924 232 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 25 12124 1503 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3774 7386 162 1418 243 44 0 0
OW 0 307 53 1778 355 26 0 0
VODI 0 89 23 924 1396 60 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 2376 860 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 329 10977 347 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 54 12079 746 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3774 7418 169 1726 239 56 0 0
OW 0 297 49 1340 298 31 0 0
VODI 0 67 20 1015 1511 54 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 95 2240 956 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 411 10710 334 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 54 12239 759 0

Date: 2020-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4995 7348 141 1246 229 34 0 0
OW 0 451 69 1309 488 24 0 0
VODI 0 57 18 681 1473 56 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 1874 1397 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 446 11052 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 16 12100 243 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4995 7470 163 1484 255 38 0 0
OW 0 337 47 1049 544 27 0 0
VODI 0 49 18 689 1582 54 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 1649 1287 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 480 11126 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 16 12131 262 0

Date: 2020-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5991 7724 133 615 244 26 0 0
OW 0 258 78 931 143 14 0 0
VODI 0 15 6 939 727 28 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 67 3139 419 0 0
CDI 0 4 0 6 693 11429 1265 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 200 9185 1579 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5991 7511 147 1171 403 36 0 0
OW 0 427 53 761 538 23 0 0
VODI 0 59 15 569 1491 54 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 42 1730 1301 0 0
CDI 0 6 0 15 784 10121 1393 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 200 9566 1451 0

Date: 2020-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7515 7068 142 737 144 0 0 0
OW 1 402 67 807 163 4 0 0
VODI 0 30 8 859 783 26 0 0
ODI 0 10 0 24 1956 1501 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 3 588 11110 1591 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 179 9135 1002 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7515 7107 165 1251 283 8 0 0
OW 1 352 40 711 324 20 0 0
VODI 0 42 12 435 1462 192 0 0
ODI 0 9 0 29 911 2143 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 4 648 9841 1426 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 185 9572 1167 0

Date: 2020-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7358 7609 150 833 153 0 0 0
OW 0 392 74 703 146 4 0 0
VODI 0 25 31 900 1066 16 0 0
ODI 0 19 0 46 1625 1851 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 4 646 10964 1914 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 260 8404 668 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7358 7810 193 1374 284 2 0 0
OW 0 180 52 702 385 11 0 0
VODI 0 36 10 380 1407 532 0 0
ODI 0 18 0 25 922 2150 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 5 647 9629 1705 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 251 8915 877 0


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