Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-07-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89575 22951 340 2546 418 12 0 0
OW 2 1051 211 2266 1478 29 0 0
VODI 0 224 73 2002 4268 184 0 0
ODI 0 9 9 470 7525 2317 1 0
CDI 0 11 3 66 3479 18121 586 0
VCDI 0 48 0 25 2537 23318 893 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90560 23327 371 2584 600 33 0 0
OW 19 1483 218 2134 2257 88 0 0
VODI 0 433 82 2060 3413 356 0 0
ODI 0 65 17 716 7367 3303 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 112 3407 17280 232 0
VCDI 0 2 0 3 1395 22410 714 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92541 24465 400 2791 334 29 0 0
OW 0 909 189 2893 576 24 0 0
VODI 0 227 45 2554 3613 74 0 0
ODI 0 83 2 205 8270 2894 0 0
CDI 1 1 1 19 2227 20392 816 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 25 17900 2544 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94882 24203 368 2562 323 45 0 0
OW 1 1288 194 3054 738 36 0 0
VODI 0 211 64 2438 4480 139 0 0
ODI 0 12 2 127 6109 5492 0 0
CDI 1 1 0 14 487 20222 774 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 54 16983 1740 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94882 24395 383 2940 388 57 0 0
OW 1 1094 177 2477 696 37 0 0
VODI 0 216 68 2588 4077 203 0 0
ODI 0 10 0 176 6337 4955 0 0
CDI 1 0 0 14 639 20338 738 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 54 17327 1776 0

Date: 2020-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96380 24982 339 2314 362 36 0 0
OW 18 1428 190 2884 1031 41 0 0
VODI 0 241 59 1877 5287 529 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 62 3735 8034 5 0
CDI 1 0 0 10 598 18155 1475 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 16 16187 761 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96394 25207 384 2716 477 44 0 0
OW 4 1204 153 2382 1039 42 0 0
VODI 0 241 51 1955 5252 853 4 0
ODI 1 4 0 84 3591 6783 119 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 654 18849 1273 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 16 16411 845 0

Date: 2020-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99353 25140 350 1388 405 26 0 0
OW 1 918 211 2173 433 17 0 0
VODI 0 74 18 2422 2121 47 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 141 7684 911 0 0
CDI 0 4 0 12 971 24603 2167 8
VCDI 0 0 0 6 200 11683 3486 73
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99346 24457 369 2261 864 43 0 0
OW 8 1414 161 2201 1387 67 0 0
VODI 0 257 46 1550 4915 1740 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 99 3481 6976 197 0
CDI 0 6 0 25 964 15790 3000 13
VCDI 0 0 0 6 203 12671 2456 68

Date: 2020-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101978 24482 345 1658 278 0 0 0
OW 2 1142 185 2095 364 4 0 0
VODI 1 124 43 2446 2449 44 0 0
ODI 0 10 0 104 4934 3777 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 11 954 23111 3433 16
VCDI 0 0 0 6 179 10550 2241 77
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101945 24026 378 2645 662 13 0 0
OW 24 1514 154 2352 1275 206 0 0
VODI 12 209 41 1230 4239 2875 0 0
ODI 0 9 0 74 1914 7690 407 0
CDI 0 5 0 13 883 15235 3195 50
VCDI 0 0 0 6 185 11467 2072 43

Date: 2020-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102726 25199 303 1509 265 0 0 0
OW 0 1407 204 1814 369 11 0 0
VODI 1 235 108 2537 2821 81 0 0
ODI 0 19 0 125 4188 5381 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 13 907 22981 2898 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 260 9856 825 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102701 25137 412 2812 807 16 0 0
OW 19 1497 161 2121 1353 420 0 0
VODI 7 207 42 961 3879 5033 0 0
ODI 0 18 0 92 1627 6271 136 0
CDI 0 2 0 12 893 15478 2552 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 251 11092 1035 0


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