Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-07-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 288 6315 169 1519 152 25 0 0
OW 4 108 57 795 505 20 1 0
VODI 0 8 7 486 1692 95 8 0
ODI 0 3 1 98 2000 1329 19 0
CDI 0 8 0 91 952 7110 199 0
VCDI 0 1 0 32 1528 8510 7765 3966
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 290 6730 201 1556 204 22 0 0
OW 0 168 51 881 704 22 0 0
VODI 0 18 11 374 1977 225 1 0
ODI 0 8 2 126 2146 1113 26 0
CDI 0 145 1 139 1144 7267 340 0
VCDI 0 2 0 2 1591 7980 7682 2717
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 582 6905 207 1394 242 24 0 0
OW 0 128 46 1028 269 11 0 0
VODI 0 23 7 793 2166 50 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 109 3205 515 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 1525 9543 32 0
VCDI 0 20 0 14 1659 11267 3197 860
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1031 7286 180 1352 182 13 0 0
OW 0 279 59 936 707 13 0 0
VODI 0 28 16 680 2601 129 0 0
ODI 0 7 0 130 2131 460 5 0
CDI 0 6 0 53 1302 10134 183 0
VCDI 0 32 0 20 542 14714 655 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1031 7355 187 1512 281 17 0 0
OW 0 200 51 775 619 14 0 0
VODI 0 34 16 673 2508 80 0 0
ODI 0 11 1 139 2093 523 3 0
CDI 0 6 0 52 1393 10101 183 0
VCDI 0 32 0 20 571 14728 657 0

Date: 2020-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1229 7971 198 1391 286 7 0 0
OW 1 288 59 1158 1426 13 0 0
VODI 0 38 21 733 1483 66 0 0
ODI 0 5 4 178 2138 124 1 0
CDI 0 0 1 63 1908 9541 157 0
VCDI 0 30 0 25 1093 13889 341 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1229 7997 202 1559 474 5 0 0
OW 1 251 55 918 841 17 0 0
VODI 0 46 21 788 1842 83 0 0
ODI 0 7 3 186 2097 137 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 68 1979 9459 204 0
VCDI 0 30 0 29 1101 13939 295 0

Date: 2020-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2449 7620 182 1274 259 17 0 0
OW 9 184 41 993 276 15 0 0
VODI 0 113 10 1284 1645 29 0 0
ODI 0 80 1 130 3305 242 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 1 676 10888 167 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 39 13041 890 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2426 7570 178 1656 622 34 0 0
OW 32 212 41 1077 1066 43 0 0
VODI 0 90 13 724 1294 55 0 0
ODI 0 77 1 162 1945 180 0 0
CDI 0 52 1 63 1231 10305 154 0
VCDI 0 1 0 1 42 13615 903 0

Date: 2020-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3376 7581 176 1320 193 31 0 0
OW 0 277 48 1843 210 29 0 0
VODI 0 129 25 1042 1327 39 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 74 2699 480 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 647 10816 269 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 23 12317 887 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3373 7557 178 2207 457 79 0 0
OW 3 244 40 1036 410 54 0 0
VODI 0 95 21 787 1184 29 0 0
ODI 0 58 9 217 1818 284 0 0
CDI 0 37 1 32 1164 10238 256 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 66 13028 900 0

Date: 2020-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4114 7435 178 1347 384 42 0 0
OW 0 398 78 1537 408 32 0 0
VODI 0 81 16 759 1489 46 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 1994 1308 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 467 10926 147 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 88 10660 1888 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4114 7497 201 2136 697 97 0 0
OW 0 322 45 685 455 26 0 0
VODI 0 61 21 672 1192 20 0 0
ODI 0 33 5 181 1598 928 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 9 761 10420 133 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 127 11523 1902 0


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