Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-07-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82367 24225 489 3813 519 33 0 0
OW 12 374 164 2208 1470 65 1 0
VODI 0 37 24 1271 4631 310 8 0
ODI 0 10 2 145 4561 3360 20 0
CDI 0 9 3 162 1993 15153 1425 0
VCDI 0 1 0 33 1530 17068 14116 5436
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83873 23861 470 3684 625 34 0 0
OW 7 672 175 2149 1955 77 0 0
VODI 0 71 29 1142 4866 518 2 0
ODI 0 17 3 166 4770 3891 40 0
CDI 0 147 3 220 1882 15133 1771 0
VCDI 0 2 0 3 1698 13127 15575 4390
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85996 23452 453 3038 483 34 0 0
OW 6 535 156 2207 841 36 1 0
VODI 0 50 28 1729 4141 125 9 0
ODI 0 6 3 197 7138 1807 17 0
CDI 0 0 1 63 2355 19546 1844 0
VCDI 0 20 0 15 1667 16737 11162 1150
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88844 22688 351 2631 403 21 0 0
OW 2 916 173 2220 1225 40 0 0
VODI 0 114 69 1973 4572 258 0 0
ODI 0 10 4 343 7038 1863 5 0
CDI 0 6 0 78 3608 18445 1267 0
VCDI 0 32 0 21 1429 24043 2356 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88844 22923 380 2930 586 28 0 0
OW 2 657 147 1876 1072 31 0 0
VODI 0 137 68 1989 4444 237 0 0
ODI 0 11 2 376 6709 1877 3 0
CDI 0 6 0 74 3967 18045 1015 0
VCDI 0 32 0 21 1497 24452 2610 0

Date: 2020-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90029 23231 353 2511 524 12 0 0
OW 4 1278 214 2302 1990 21 0 0
VODI 0 328 77 2121 3596 152 0 0
ODI 0 34 18 645 7839 2596 1 0
CDI 0 0 1 96 4533 16059 734 0
VCDI 0 31 0 25 3082 21861 750 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90030 23517 398 2872 770 8 0 0
OW 3 950 154 1846 1414 20 0 0
VODI 0 368 93 2183 3950 228 0 0
ODI 0 35 16 678 7093 2254 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 92 5144 16055 756 0
VCDI 0 31 0 29 3193 22136 729 0

Date: 2020-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91313 24587 412 2414 340 19 0 0
OW 10 868 200 2373 514 21 0 0
VODI 0 191 39 2909 3353 63 0 0
ODI 0 86 3 254 9868 1229 0 0
CDI 0 6 1 17 2474 21625 448 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 41 19638 1731 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91291 23768 385 3087 919 36 0 0
OW 32 1142 150 2097 1740 65 0 0
VODI 0 630 100 1977 3530 549 0 0
ODI 0 144 19 703 6394 3169 0 0
CDI 0 52 1 103 3297 17266 611 0
VCDI 0 2 0 1 710 21510 1568 0

Date: 2020-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93209 24975 382 2536 339 32 0 0
OW 0 1159 208 3039 612 33 0 0
VODI 0 235 53 2337 4054 73 0 0
ODI 0 16 1 158 7351 4216 0 0
CDI 1 2 1 6 820 21038 572 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 23 17748 1815 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93206 23931 378 3599 915 82 0 0
OW 3 1434 136 1866 1127 91 0 0
VODI 0 849 105 1963 3941 1311 0 0
ODI 0 135 25 597 5322 4042 0 0
CDI 1 38 1 51 1828 17205 570 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 66 20409 1817 0

Date: 2020-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95629 24389 400 2490 503 43 0 0
OW 36 1264 205 2927 924 57 0 0
VODI 0 203 51 2144 5016 294 0 0
ODI 0 10 1 91 4659 6948 0 0
CDI 1 0 0 27 606 19381 845 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 88 15296 2516 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95664 23319 408 3566 1207 144 0 0
OW 1 1543 137 1507 1420 198 0 0
VODI 0 895 100 2038 3686 2181 0 0
ODI 0 108 12 516 4253 5339 10 0
CDI 1 1 0 52 1103 16169 548 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 127 17988 2803 0


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