Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-06-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 253 5055 225 1409 227 8 0 0
OW 8 89 40 927 647 25 0 0
VODI 0 13 7 241 1123 250 4 0
ODI 0 3 0 54 954 891 19 0
CDI 0 4 0 60 1374 4944 156 0
VCDI 0 0 0 121 2233 12655 6941 4906
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 348 5227 202 1585 284 10 0 0
OW 5 129 58 726 741 30 0 0
VODI 0 27 9 303 1029 387 3 0
ODI 0 5 3 92 1059 847 8 0
CDI 0 2 1 82 996 5206 59 0
VCDI 0 0 0 55 1779 10236 8003 6330
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 290 5678 222 1633 180 6 0 0
OW 6 103 35 647 411 18 0 0
VODI 0 2 5 379 1113 54 3 0
ODI 0 1 2 59 1800 934 6 0
CDI 0 6 0 39 984 6879 269 0
VCDI 0 76 12 44 1363 9275 11557 1775
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 339 6011 177 1540 188 12 0 0
OW 4 102 53 691 478 19 0 0
VODI 0 2 8 450 1568 37 6 0
ODI 0 7 0 98 1573 1278 11 0
CDI 0 18 0 95 1129 6676 785 0
VCDI 0 1 1 4 1483 9010 10223 1789
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 339 6016 188 1675 279 19 0 0
OW 4 89 42 566 409 21 2 0
VODI 0 11 8 424 1600 52 7 0
ODI 0 2 0 109 1550 1436 10 0
CDI 0 20 0 98 1099 6584 872 0
VCDI 0 3 1 6 1482 8920 10134 1789

Date: 2020-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 333 6435 169 1593 177 20 0 0
OW 3 137 47 849 568 20 0 0
VODI 0 19 5 519 1792 185 8 0
ODI 0 2 3 111 2256 1094 20 0
CDI 0 5 1 104 1010 7203 281 0
VCDI 0 2 0 10 1655 8366 6855 4009
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 333 6439 180 1673 306 28 0 0
OW 3 127 35 749 556 22 2 0
VODI 0 26 6 536 1671 138 9 0
ODI 0 1 2 104 2227 1200 16 0
CDI 0 5 2 117 1063 7148 308 0
VCDI 0 2 0 7 1635 8352 6829 4009

Date: 2020-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 358 6813 212 1407 187 17 0 0
OW 0 123 35 817 314 13 0 0
VODI 0 33 4 807 1444 20 2 0
ODI 0 166 0 122 4083 379 9 0
CDI 0 6 0 47 1438 9158 53 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1348 9779 5637 1035
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 358 6763 211 1710 500 36 0 0
OW 0 158 30 721 629 32 0 0
VODI 0 25 8 526 2163 141 1 0
ODI 0 150 2 146 2586 478 16 0
CDI 0 45 0 89 1302 7820 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 1634 10859 5638 1035

Date: 2020-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 778 7188 178 1302 178 22 0 0
OW 0 231 55 1040 331 21 0 0
VODI 0 12 9 746 2790 45 2 0
ODI 0 8 0 119 2554 325 16 0
CDI 0 1 1 51 1533 9859 99 0
VCDI 0 14 0 15 1381 12066 2721 175
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 778 7170 184 1696 404 48 0 0
OW 0 215 45 754 550 62 2 0
VODI 0 29 9 542 2825 110 25 0
ODI 0 23 4 154 2063 238 26 0
CDI 0 3 1 109 1354 8621 27 0
VCDI 0 14 0 18 1571 13259 2758 175

Date: 2020-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1285 7488 185 1415 184 4 0 0
OW 1 287 69 1038 949 15 0 0
VODI 0 52 11 576 2325 73 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 134 2134 307 1 0
CDI 0 11 3 53 1488 9965 94 0
VCDI 0 47 0 25 854 14320 464 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1286 7452 185 1579 543 8 0 0
OW 0 274 61 770 858 55 0 0
VODI 0 59 12 568 2431 94 0 0
ODI 0 40 10 177 1722 284 7 0
CDI 0 19 3 122 1357 9441 149 0
VCDI 0 47 0 25 1023 14802 403 0


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