Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-06-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81213 21249 506 3255 608 19 0 0
OW 17 547 159 2872 1449 69 0 0
VODI 0 67 25 1607 3959 477 12 0
ODI 0 14 3 212 3583 1985 48 0
CDI 0 4 0 263 3448 10404 2307 0
VCDI 0 0 0 121 2653 15949 14681 13263
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81748 21564 505 3727 738 28 0 0
OW 14 560 163 2966 2008 105 0 0
VODI 0 68 24 1078 3957 792 4 0
ODI 0 9 5 177 3198 2588 111 0
CDI 0 3 1 227 3060 10135 3096 19
VCDI 0 0 0 56 1979 13168 18135 11032
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83020 21896 522 3643 563 23 0 0
OW 15 341 126 2310 1120 46 2 0
VODI 0 16 19 1283 3484 140 4 0
ODI 0 2 5 147 5352 2190 7 0
CDI 0 6 0 84 2075 14922 809 0
VCDI 0 76 12 45 1422 12967 23666 4688
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82231 23898 483 3715 604 22 0 0
OW 12 388 154 2182 1324 57 0 0
VODI 0 31 25 1302 4316 204 6 0
ODI 0 14 2 158 4303 3004 11 0
CDI 0 20 0 170 2376 14484 1684 0
VCDI 0 1 1 5 1527 15106 20684 2544
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82231 23945 515 4146 751 40 0 0
OW 12 327 122 1799 1296 52 2 0
VODI 0 48 25 1222 4162 232 7 0
ODI 0 7 2 185 4327 3295 10 0
CDI 0 22 0 173 2387 14200 1516 0
VCDI 0 3 1 7 1527 15058 20850 2544

Date: 2020-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83423 23669 473 3862 544 26 0 0
OW 11 456 158 2270 1644 76 0 0
VODI 0 68 24 1327 4709 410 8 0
ODI 0 9 4 163 5227 3013 24 0
CDI 0 7 3 184 1883 15615 1157 0
VCDI 0 2 0 11 1655 16177 13179 5577
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83423 23714 526 4226 792 50 0 0
OW 11 389 103 1909 1590 64 2 0
VODI 0 93 27 1336 4489 396 9 0
ODI 0 6 3 143 5140 3148 21 0
CDI 0 7 3 195 2016 15389 1095 0
VCDI 0 2 0 8 1635 16270 13241 5577

Date: 2020-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85447 23096 461 3106 343 24 0 0
OW 8 530 157 2036 722 33 0 0
VODI 0 70 14 1834 3137 85 2 0
ODI 0 172 4 212 8446 1190 9 0
CDI 0 6 0 66 2140 19977 955 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 1416 14710 14942 1697
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85454 22940 491 4022 1099 58 0 0
OW 1 608 106 1665 1805 74 0 0
VODI 0 114 33 1209 4976 613 1 0
ODI 0 162 3 185 4643 3817 24 0
CDI 0 50 3 165 1963 15773 1981 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 1718 15684 13902 1697

Date: 2020-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88291 22229 377 2792 422 31 0 0
OW 6 740 172 2258 895 43 2 0
VODI 0 61 38 1863 4805 149 9 0
ODI 0 17 3 233 6966 1479 19 0
CDI 0 1 2 90 3242 18858 1913 0
VCDI 0 14 0 16 1382 20320 6998 312
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88292 21914 417 3790 1212 63 0 0
OW 5 829 114 1684 1689 137 6 0
VODI 0 238 49 1292 5463 667 33 0
ODI 0 53 7 269 5003 3632 118 0
CDI 0 14 5 198 2774 15465 2011 0
VCDI 0 14 0 19 1571 20916 6773 312

Date: 2020-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89575 22951 340 2546 418 12 0 0
OW 2 1051 211 2266 1478 29 0 0
VODI 0 224 73 2002 4268 184 0 0
ODI 0 9 9 470 7525 2317 1 0
CDI 0 11 3 66 3479 18121 586 0
VCDI 0 48 0 25 2537 23318 893 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89576 22786 411 3507 1402 34 0 0
OW 1 1021 144 1794 1946 116 0 0
VODI 0 380 65 1445 4990 645 0 0
ODI 0 40 13 411 5746 3487 73 0
CDI 0 19 3 193 2937 17227 651 0
VCDI 0 48 0 25 2684 22472 756 0


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