Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-06-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-06-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 160 3601 178 1147 219 3 2 0
OW 20 167 46 612 484 5 13 0
VODI 0 68 24 412 1072 131 21 0
ODI 0 14 1 147 821 509 58 0
CDI 0 6 1 66 779 2943 646 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 241 3329 8633 19256
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 214 4010 176 1137 214 11 2 0
OW 19 180 48 761 423 22 8 0
VODI 0 85 29 385 1138 129 20 0
ODI 0 12 2 142 912 491 41 0
CDI 0 39 1 124 1169 3554 479 0
VCDI 0 16 0 44 282 5925 7985 15637
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 220 4677 190 1151 165 9 0 0
OW 18 103 33 787 390 16 3 0
VODI 0 13 5 436 1216 80 6 0
ODI 0 15 1 93 1236 611 18 0
CDI 0 9 0 83 1675 4466 572 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 300 6355 11010 9903
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 227 4841 232 1442 167 7 0 0
OW 10 114 42 874 555 16 0 0
VODI 0 10 7 349 1265 84 4 0
ODI 0 5 0 71 1091 803 22 0
CDI 0 5 1 71 1862 4628 50 0
VCDI 0 32 2 85 1448 11462 6980 7002
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 227 4839 237 1616 290 6 0 0
OW 10 108 32 664 459 20 0 0
VODI 0 18 12 375 1216 109 8 0
ODI 0 10 0 85 1113 745 18 0
CDI 0 0 1 64 1886 4853 62 0
VCDI 0 32 2 88 1424 11267 6968 7002

Date: 2020-06-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 264 5080 236 1525 275 9 0 0
OW 7 100 46 850 717 23 0 0
VODI 0 16 8 242 1113 296 6 0
ODI 0 3 1 69 934 923 13 0
CDI 0 4 0 70 975 5031 262 0
VCDI 0 0 0 59 1765 13931 6935 4078
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 264 5084 252 1721 396 13 0 0
OW 7 91 24 609 599 25 0 0
VODI 0 19 14 282 1128 313 5 0
ODI 0 5 1 80 882 915 21 0
CDI 0 4 0 74 1031 5053 296 0
VCDI 0 0 0 49 1743 13894 6894 4078

Date: 2020-06-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 356 5439 203 1468 207 4 0 0
OW 8 98 44 717 336 9 0 0
VODI 0 11 8 473 898 18 2 0
ODI 0 7 1 64 2055 608 5 0
CDI 0 1 1 38 964 6484 486 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 1440 7501 9612 6285
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 359 5405 215 1697 495 8 0 0
OW 5 107 27 571 590 21 1 0
VODI 0 35 12 288 1188 354 9 0
ODI 0 8 2 103 967 1050 18 0
CDI 0 0 1 88 905 4886 544 0
VCDI 0 1 0 28 1755 8305 9533 6285

Date: 2020-06-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 367 5797 200 1589 182 11 0 0
OW 5 97 40 634 454 21 2 0
VODI 0 5 6 382 1312 105 6 0
ODI 0 18 2 64 1462 1161 11 0
CDI 0 92 1 94 991 6790 656 0
VCDI 0 10 0 15 1463 8452 10204 3165
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 368 5749 193 1754 497 28 0 0
OW 4 131 42 459 602 84 6 0
VODI 0 17 11 307 1226 355 21 0
ODI 0 35 2 112 1022 1232 20 0
CDI 0 50 1 116 797 5539 382 0
VCDI 0 37 0 30 1720 9302 10450 3165

Date: 2020-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 288 6315 169 1519 152 25 0 0
OW 4 108 57 795 505 20 1 0
VODI 0 8 7 486 1692 95 8 0
ODI 0 3 1 98 2000 1329 19 0
CDI 0 8 0 91 952 7110 199 0
VCDI 0 1 0 32 1528 8510 7765 3966
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 290 6210 160 1762 528 46 0 0
OW 2 172 54 614 702 29 8 0
VODI 0 37 16 335 1424 168 23 0
ODI 0 12 2 91 1521 1038 42 0
CDI 0 9 2 156 1007 6793 59 0
VCDI 0 3 0 63 1647 9015 7860 3966


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