Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-06-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-06-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80390 18932 418 2603 544 4 2 0
OW 39 421 146 2026 1056 14 13 0
VODI 0 93 32 1165 3629 338 34 3
ODI 0 19 3 309 3382 1953 175 1
CDI 0 6 1 308 1951 7845 2184 3
VCDI 0 0 0 90 459 5160 22501 28796
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80721 19287 414 2818 617 23 2 0
OW 35 564 147 2202 1079 71 10 0
VODI 0 137 41 1229 4198 461 87 0
ODI 0 23 5 279 3062 1767 259 0
CDI 0 40 1 491 2254 8418 2652 0
VCDI 0 16 0 52 520 9410 21218 22438
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80644 20615 467 2718 457 13 0 0
OW 34 460 141 2235 762 37 4 0
VODI 0 39 18 1923 3751 155 12 0
ODI 0 22 1 400 4438 1372 47 0
CDI 0 9 0 385 4186 9793 1965 0
VCDI 0 1 0 25 548 10025 22146 17200
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80892 20944 491 3253 550 16 0 0
OW 22 532 171 2629 1188 42 0 0
VODI 0 50 20 1769 4098 364 7 0
ODI 0 12 1 250 3727 1799 56 0
CDI 0 6 1 295 4189 9796 2147 0
VCDI 0 32 2 91 1770 15373 15093 15370
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80892 20990 516 3766 732 17 0 0
OW 22 461 132 2072 1091 44 1 0
VODI 0 75 33 1772 3971 383 12 0
ODI 0 17 2 295 3562 1873 111 0
CDI 0 1 1 290 4455 9954 2240 0
VCDI 0 32 2 92 1711 15119 14939 15370

Date: 2020-06-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80741 22045 547 3545 639 30 0 0
OW 16 542 156 3089 1710 89 5 0
VODI 0 62 26 1481 3758 633 11 0
ODI 0 18 3 225 3300 2291 47 0
CDI 0 4 0 258 3406 9977 2720 0
VCDI 0 0 0 59 2097 16341 15555 11622
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80741 22096 590 4244 834 42 1 0
OW 16 470 100 2406 1551 84 4 0
VODI 0 80 41 1441 3773 649 10 0
ODI 0 21 1 259 3065 2481 163 0
CDI 0 4 0 258 3684 9761 2509 0
VCDI 0 0 0 49 2003 16344 15651 11622

Date: 2020-06-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82696 21541 511 3218 521 17 0 0
OW 17 373 158 2448 787 21 3 0
VODI 0 27 18 1706 2862 76 10 0
ODI 0 10 3 150 6426 1266 19 0
CDI 0 1 1 99 2014 14499 1274 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 1585 10104 22018 10554
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82701 21328 550 4368 1263 42 1 0
OW 12 520 98 1908 2080 94 6 0
VODI 0 85 36 979 4112 901 27 0
ODI 0 18 5 162 2657 3022 389 0
CDI 0 0 2 191 2168 10842 3066 9
VCDI 0 1 0 28 1915 11082 19835 10545

Date: 2020-06-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82249 23417 524 3649 532 25 0 0
OW 12 443 149 2208 1186 64 2 0
VODI 0 26 19 1301 3807 231 6 0
ODI 0 20 5 147 4491 2642 11 0
CDI 0 92 1 151 2157 14660 1427 0
VCDI 0 10 0 16 1463 12919 21855 5131
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82251 23197 542 4713 1579 112 0 0
OW 10 588 116 1506 2179 217 6 0
VODI 0 96 33 842 3789 1136 21 0
ODI 0 40 6 182 2338 3857 189 0
CDI 0 50 1 198 2031 12335 2618 0
VCDI 0 37 0 31 1720 12884 20467 5131

Date: 2020-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82367 24225 489 3813 519 33 0 0
OW 12 374 164 2208 1470 65 1 0
VODI 0 37 24 1271 4631 310 8 0
ODI 0 10 2 145 4561 3360 20 0
CDI 0 9 3 162 1993 15153 1425 0
VCDI 0 1 0 33 1530 17068 14116 5436
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82375 23882 521 4953 2033 129 0 0
OW 4 644 121 1535 2518 164 8 0
VODI 0 92 31 698 3668 1384 39 0
ODI 0 23 3 148 2757 3926 422 0
CDI 0 12 6 234 2076 14555 2604 0
VCDI 0 3 0 64 1652 15831 12497 5436


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