Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-06-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2175 115 1016 331 14 0 0
OW 0 199 16 407 537 29 3 0
VODI 0 62 20 252 976 307 6 0
ODI 0 18 5 144 548 836 50 0
CDI 0 9 2 72 597 2153 1620 3
VCDI 0 0 0 32 101 1216 12251 19744
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2672 120 1008 356 8 0 0
OW 0 237 30 444 606 55 3 0
VODI 0 95 25 236 788 513 31 0
ODI 0 27 9 190 473 678 205 0
CDI 0 7 1 118 542 1747 2328 1
VCDI 0 0 0 71 179 548 7605 23910
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69 3097 139 1000 312 4 0 0
OW 14 267 32 412 385 20 1 0
VODI 0 43 29 367 873 103 15 0
ODI 0 50 10 200 827 594 29 0
CDI 0 3 4 80 490 2291 1100 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 186 1383 10456 20975
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139 3441 161 1020 267 6 1 0
OW 20 193 47 521 450 10 11 0
VODI 0 80 23 372 1014 146 29 0
ODI 0 38 4 144 842 555 75 0
CDI 0 6 1 71 714 2332 1117 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 221 2249 10089 19437
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139 3426 171 1156 384 8 0 0
OW 20 197 37 377 442 10 15 0
VODI 0 91 23 371 883 187 33 0
ODI 0 42 5 145 839 505 81 0
CDI 0 2 0 76 723 2267 1089 1
VCDI 0 0 0 23 237 2321 10104 19436

Date: 2020-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 191 3743 183 1261 164 8 2 0
OW 20 176 38 663 495 12 8 0
VODI 0 68 23 365 1081 193 21 0
ODI 0 6 0 132 748 531 79 0
CDI 0 10 1 79 718 3239 777 0
VCDI 0 7 0 54 286 3054 8561 18869
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 191 3730 184 1445 312 6 5 0
OW 20 185 35 484 431 21 8 0
VODI 0 73 25 361 974 213 20 0
ODI 0 10 1 129 760 567 58 0
CDI 0 3 0 74 706 3078 732 0
VCDI 0 9 0 61 309 3152 8625 18869

Date: 2020-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 215 4350 190 1084 145 6 0 0
OW 19 129 55 753 224 18 2 0
VODI 0 16 8 580 1097 31 2 0
ODI 0 8 2 85 1596 397 13 0
CDI 0 16 0 88 1342 4743 489 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 171 5151 10294 12546
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 217 4231 181 1458 355 20 3 0
OW 17 192 46 448 490 24 5 0
VODI 0 73 27 393 1013 214 21 0
ODI 0 7 1 129 865 578 39 0
CDI 0 13 0 113 1379 3319 677 0
VCDI 0 3 0 50 473 6191 10055 12546

Date: 2020-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 226 4727 223 1328 154 6 0 0
OW 13 97 29 868 440 15 0 0
VODI 0 22 11 409 1255 84 4 0
ODI 0 7 1 69 1241 614 24 0
CDI 0 0 1 74 2043 4495 160 0
VCDI 0 4 0 13 1552 8128 5737 11792
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 230 4550 189 1555 447 19 0 0
OW 9 213 47 533 557 41 8 0
VODI 0 78 22 375 938 221 26 0
ODI 0 11 6 145 906 697 32 0
CDI 0 1 1 78 2018 3637 178 0
VCDI 0 4 0 75 1819 8727 5681 11792

Date: 2020-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 253 5055 225 1409 227 8 0 0
OW 8 89 40 927 647 25 0 0
VODI 0 13 7 241 1123 250 4 0
ODI 0 3 0 54 954 891 19 0
CDI 0 4 0 60 1374 4944 156 0
VCDI 0 0 0 121 2233 12655 6941 4906
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 255 4969 228 1713 496 24 3 0
OW 6 157 26 515 593 40 13 0
VODI 0 28 15 296 1016 377 23 0
ODI 0 10 3 75 861 989 51 0
CDI 0 0 0 70 1429 4559 305 0
VCDI 0 0 0 143 2163 12784 6725 4906


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