Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-06-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78544 17287 340 2620 858 28 0 0
OW 25 487 103 1357 1156 56 9 0
VODI 0 104 33 845 2895 590 49 0
ODI 0 27 6 269 2156 3189 213 0
CDI 0 9 3 137 1347 5880 5564 3
VCDI 0 0 0 32 234 2623 27300 30670
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79098 17922 352 2497 851 17 0 0
OW 23 581 117 1420 1417 92 9 0
VODI 0 158 50 800 2981 1203 88 0
ODI 0 48 13 278 1809 3261 650 1
CDI 0 14 5 191 1205 5039 6247 5
VCDI 0 0 0 71 580 1961 20605 35389
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79922 18574 369 2167 662 5 0 0
OW 38 506 140 1610 727 30 1 0
VODI 0 60 32 1198 2554 161 25 0
ODI 0 55 10 278 3578 1693 79 0
CDI 0 7 4 100 1752 7273 2284 0
VCDI 0 1 0 6 386 6128 22845 31788
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80072 18967 396 2340 589 7 1 0
OW 40 408 139 1871 963 20 11 0
VODI 0 97 30 1020 3365 301 42 0
ODI 0 38 7 216 3431 2139 170 0
CDI 0 6 1 135 1936 7058 2946 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 472 4434 22796 30563
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80072 18962 412 2783 763 9 0 0
OW 40 394 117 1438 960 16 15 0
VODI 0 116 36 982 3302 378 41 0
ODI 0 42 8 229 3142 2041 190 0
CDI 0 2 0 142 2082 6862 2836 1
VCDI 0 0 0 29 507 4653 22884 30562

Date: 2020-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80377 19245 408 2885 509 10 2 0
OW 38 514 138 2079 1088 39 10 0
VODI 0 104 35 1128 3923 519 43 0
ODI 0 12 2 272 3012 1976 245 1
CDI 0 10 1 425 1821 7985 2827 1
VCDI 0 7 0 99 422 5650 22074 27112
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80377 19304 447 3423 696 8 5 0
OW 38 437 95 1598 1023 50 10 0
VODI 0 124 38 1050 3751 507 38 0
ODI 0 15 4 273 2931 2049 215 1
CDI 0 3 0 429 1923 7788 2801 1
VCDI 0 9 0 115 451 5777 22132 27112

Date: 2020-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81051 19654 415 2437 542 8 0 0
OW 37 437 178 2024 520 31 2 1
VODI 0 37 20 1816 3223 86 7 2
ODI 0 10 2 325 5663 1033 36 0
CDI 0 16 0 266 2569 11300 1834 1
VCDI 0 1 0 3 262 8550 21646 21003
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81056 19494 466 3394 975 41 3 1
OW 32 450 103 1533 1401 85 10 1
VODI 0 165 41 1104 4114 584 68 1
ODI 0 28 5 278 2617 2060 272 1
CDI 0 14 0 510 2954 8188 3171 0
VCDI 0 4 0 52 718 10050 20001 21003

Date: 2020-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80872 20640 470 2985 525 12 0 0
OW 25 488 158 2395 932 38 0 0
VODI 0 50 23 1956 4106 214 10 0
ODI 0 12 2 269 4108 1464 43 0
CDI 0 1 1 299 4810 9594 1661 0
VCDI 0 5 0 16 2312 13097 15434 18021
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80877 20420 483 3768 1178 66 1 0
OW 20 514 110 1966 1832 176 13 0
VODI 0 194 41 1225 3504 778 64 0
ODI 0 57 18 404 2422 2450 241 0
CDI 0 6 2 475 4949 7599 2441 0
VCDI 0 5 0 82 2908 13350 14388 18021

Date: 2020-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81213 21249 506 3255 608 19 0 0
OW 17 547 159 2872 1449 69 0 0
VODI 0 67 25 1607 3959 477 12 0
ODI 0 14 3 212 3583 1985 48 0
CDI 0 4 0 263 3448 10404 2307 0
VCDI 0 0 0 121 2653 15949 14681 13263
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81215 20957 532 4477 1618 118 3 0
OW 15 600 98 1804 1826 192 15 0
VODI 0 217 37 1198 3195 1008 75 0
ODI 0 93 22 327 2275 2813 645 0
CDI 0 14 4 367 4084 9003 2776 81
VCDI 0 0 0 157 2702 15769 13534 13182


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