Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-06-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1540 115 791 189 5 0 0
OW 0 149 14 284 550 44 8 0
VODI 0 56 15 160 912 290 28 0
ODI 0 5 6 114 651 606 107 0
CDI 0 11 1 48 649 2792 2486 0
VCDI 0 4 0 6 33 1423 11060 20714
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1814 114 853 245 12 0 0
OW 0 160 7 299 640 76 15 0
VODI 0 56 10 177 825 402 39 0
ODI 0 2 3 126 554 560 146 12
CDI 0 13 1 25 669 2326 2904 498
VCDI 0 1 1 6 47 848 10329 21051
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2063 108 827 230 5 0 0
OW 0 133 10 326 357 16 6 0
VODI 0 69 20 302 791 81 9 0
ODI 0 8 2 50 838 618 13 0
CDI 0 14 1 24 632 2620 763 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 69 1082 14922 18857
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2027 101 1034 268 6 0 0
OW 0 214 14 339 517 10 4 0
VODI 0 56 19 246 1024 160 5 0
ODI 0 12 4 114 639 828 35 0
CDI 0 14 0 68 658 2353 1241 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 110 1757 11978 19995
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2088 107 1080 347 8 0 0
OW 0 148 13 300 468 14 1 0
VODI 0 57 10 240 994 212 8 0
ODI 0 18 8 96 602 764 29 0
CDI 0 12 0 83 696 2227 1236 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 109 1889 11989 19995

Date: 2020-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2419 125 975 353 8 0 0
OW 0 216 20 436 575 37 3 0
VODI 0 78 24 260 891 391 16 0
ODI 0 24 8 168 490 754 133 0
CDI 0 4 2 106 608 1751 2148 8
VCDI 0 0 0 53 113 572 11133 20964
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2466 131 1077 495 13 0 0
OW 0 161 19 340 567 34 1 0
VODI 0 79 16 250 775 398 15 0
ODI 0 33 10 152 438 687 122 0
CDI 0 2 3 127 643 1740 2055 15
VCDI 0 0 0 52 112 641 11240 20957

Date: 2020-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51 2989 114 914 212 5 0 0
OW 12 262 38 439 253 16 0 0
VODI 0 83 29 448 705 62 11 0
ODI 0 21 4 211 1150 465 23 0
CDI 0 7 3 82 437 2691 590 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 150 1328 10195 21852
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52 2945 117 1166 531 19 0 0
OW 11 196 32 259 613 75 2 0
VODI 0 152 16 209 585 536 37 0
ODI 0 52 15 204 380 659 241 0
CDI 0 12 5 184 570 1830 2076 2
VCDI 0 5 3 86 228 1448 8463 21850

Date: 2020-06-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97 3184 144 1027 328 7 0 0
OW 15 239 41 463 424 26 8 0
VODI 0 60 23 318 931 157 20 0
ODI 0 51 10 190 783 612 50 0
CDI 0 4 1 93 598 2216 1271 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 202 1625 10376 20266
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98 3057 137 1176 787 73 0 0
OW 14 203 31 189 631 158 15 0
VODI 0 154 22 238 466 525 102 0
ODI 0 120 26 237 482 495 364 0
CDI 0 4 3 187 631 1612 2336 6
VCDI 0 0 0 70 269 1780 8908 20260

Date: 2020-06-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 160 3601 178 1147 219 3 2 0
OW 20 167 46 612 484 5 13 0
VODI 0 68 24 412 1072 131 21 0
ODI 0 14 1 147 821 509 58 0
CDI 0 6 1 66 779 2943 646 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 241 3329 8633 19256
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 166 3360 165 1435 792 79 1 0
OW 14 256 27 208 651 154 17 0
VODI 0 164 36 287 546 462 121 0
ODI 0 69 21 298 555 431 391 0
CDI 0 7 1 105 829 2831 1552 0
VCDI 0 0 0 82 243 2963 7291 19256


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