Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-06-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76501 17213 397 2592 1001 82 1 0
OW 30 227 36 1049 1264 129 14 0
VODI 0 98 24 462 2476 632 79 0
ODI 0 33 10 254 1660 2599 306 0
CDI 0 36 4 179 1987 6936 4667 3
VCDI 0 12 3 41 461 7851 25986 29713
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77308 16986 387 2720 1069 70 2 0
OW 29 295 40 999 1422 182 36 0
VODI 0 124 19 520 2332 1175 120 0
ODI 0 46 11 309 1390 2769 598 12
CDI 0 34 1 190 2061 6344 6048 506
VCDI 0 4 2 35 276 5176 24315 31086
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78217 16473 364 2522 968 35 0 0
OW 29 408 69 1159 835 60 12 0
VODI 0 122 29 875 2134 212 39 0
ODI 0 14 2 187 2602 1802 92 0
CDI 0 15 2 107 1737 8490 3423 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 153 2845 28467 32548
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78103 17355 334 2583 814 19 0 0
OW 28 506 106 1278 1030 51 9 0
VODI 0 92 33 853 2673 359 38 0
ODI 0 20 6 253 2214 2885 178 0
CDI 0 14 0 128 1546 7414 4410 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 205 3310 24864 33321
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78103 17386 367 2786 943 23 0 0
OW 28 462 70 1046 961 47 5 0
VODI 0 98 32 865 2458 504 45 0
ODI 0 26 9 241 2256 2603 166 0
CDI 0 15 1 155 1647 7418 4467 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 217 3443 24816 33321

Date: 2020-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78679 17662 364 2605 856 24 0 0
OW 24 520 101 1407 1282 68 10 0
VODI 0 123 37 828 3046 820 59 3
ODI 0 39 9 311 1930 3352 393 1
CDI 0 7 4 191 1342 4854 6341 11
VCDI 0 0 0 53 402 1713 22119 35458
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78679 17726 386 2919 1092 32 2 0
OW 24 432 78 1055 1198 62 8 0
VODI 0 141 35 842 2805 905 70 2
ODI 0 42 11 314 1928 3074 389 2
CDI 0 10 5 213 1412 4851 6386 18
VCDI 0 0 0 52 423 1907 22067 35451

Date: 2020-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79518 18348 360 2123 561 7 0 0
OW 40 570 134 1486 531 19 0 0
VODI 0 106 41 1289 2242 106 16 3
ODI 0 21 4 270 4022 1298 49 2
CDI 0 7 3 118 1327 8474 1538 1
VCDI 0 0 0 14 348 2988 25187 33877
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79527 18309 382 2836 1178 21 0 0
OW 31 432 100 1076 1415 130 5 0
VODI 0 212 34 744 2760 1514 102 3
ODI 0 68 17 289 1724 3015 673 2
CDI 0 26 6 254 1277 5393 5969 7
VCDI 0 5 3 101 677 2819 20041 33871

Date: 2020-06-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79548 19118 384 2278 653 8 0 0
OW 38 432 137 1756 894 28 9 0
VODI 0 70 29 958 3008 241 27 0
ODI 0 52 12 266 3361 2085 126 0
CDI 0 4 1 148 1792 7019 2819 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 348 4341 23607 31445
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79554 18869 389 2980 1495 76 0 0
OW 32 436 89 973 1816 297 21 0
VODI 0 217 51 761 2726 1955 189 0
ODI 0 134 28 344 1905 2492 968 0
CDI 0 20 6 274 1589 5316 6098 6
VCDI 0 0 0 80 525 3586 19312 31439

Date: 2020-06-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80390 18932 418 2603 544 4 2 0
OW 39 421 146 2026 1056 14 13 0
VODI 0 93 32 1165 3629 338 34 3
ODI 0 19 3 309 3382 1953 175 1
CDI 0 6 1 308 1951 7845 2184 3
VCDI 0 0 0 90 459 5160 22501 28796
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80400 18507 435 3672 1842 108 2 0
OW 29 561 75 928 2109 486 47 2
VODI 0 258 57 862 3142 1498 339 1
ODI 0 97 26 481 1777 2319 998 3
CDI 0 48 7 308 1711 6816 5256 5
VCDI 0 0 0 250 440 4087 18267 28792


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