Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-05-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 600 60 418 157 14 0 0
OW 0 315 25 321 196 67 14 0
VODI 0 102 20 288 481 148 63 0
ODI 0 29 6 160 441 253 156 4
CDI 0 12 6 191 1192 1252 771 16
VCDI 0 0 0 33 361 4026 21353 12315
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 763 79 426 105 8 0 0
OW 0 242 13 351 318 95 5 0
VODI 0 83 4 183 626 229 22 0
ODI 0 35 4 125 540 418 76 0
CDI 0 27 4 197 1253 2303 468 1
VCDI 0 0 0 33 315 6221 17279 13015
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1071 97 589 116 9 0 0
OW 0 127 23 490 223 7 1 0
VODI 0 77 6 199 876 164 57 0
ODI 0 14 9 154 809 550 138 1
CDI 0 2 2 103 754 2057 1831 126
VCDI 0 0 0 9 81 3261 14491 17342
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1353 113 787 140 4 0 0
OW 0 132 15 338 429 24 10 0
VODI 0 68 6 173 888 251 59 0
ODI 0 10 7 140 726 566 98 0
CDI 0 9 2 63 739 3974 1065 0
VCDI 0 4 0 6 54 2074 12767 18772
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1403 118 874 238 4 0 0
OW 0 78 10 274 402 40 11 0
VODI 0 66 5 140 825 239 54 0
ODI 0 17 7 139 689 569 87 0
CDI 0 6 2 74 768 3762 942 0
VCDI 0 6 1 6 54 2279 12905 18772

Date: 2020-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1695 114 814 218 6 0 0
OW 0 158 15 301 572 62 15 0
VODI 0 53 10 171 896 362 22 0
ODI 0 2 5 103 595 541 152 16
CDI 0 12 1 38 694 2433 2605 338
VCDI 0 2 1 6 43 1043 12754 18998
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1750 123 920 397 15 1 0
OW 0 91 9 206 521 77 10 0
VODI 0 63 6 141 774 331 26 0
ODI 0 4 6 126 539 551 117 6
CDI 0 11 1 34 745 2348 2538 327
VCDI 0 3 1 6 42 1125 12856 19019

Date: 2020-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1935 112 760 149 4 0 0
OW 0 171 13 362 252 15 1 0
VODI 0 21 12 372 708 48 10 0
ODI 0 6 1 34 1118 432 19 0
CDI 0 14 3 14 575 2541 621 9
VCDI 0 0 0 3 52 658 12289 22532
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1943 115 1037 569 34 6 0
OW 0 111 5 181 544 142 13 0
VODI 0 72 16 157 604 393 45 8
ODI 0 5 2 146 436 636 163 5
CDI 0 16 1 20 635 2122 3615 502
VCDI 0 0 2 4 66 371 9098 22026

Date: 2020-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2084 103 879 245 7 0 0
OW 0 182 11 343 407 11 4 0
VODI 0 45 18 293 900 101 9 0
ODI 0 9 3 67 829 683 22 0
CDI 0 15 0 39 708 2691 840 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 111 1609 11200 21398
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2026 107 1132 882 56 7 0
OW 0 116 6 180 522 139 12 0
VODI 0 156 10 117 573 510 19 0
ODI 0 22 12 136 442 909 187 0
CDI 0 15 0 54 642 2951 3163 44
VCDI 0 0 0 2 139 537 8687 21354

Date: 2020-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2175 115 1016 331 14 0 0
OW 0 199 16 407 537 29 3 0
VODI 0 62 20 252 976 307 6 0
ODI 0 18 5 144 548 836 50 0
CDI 0 9 2 72 597 2153 1620 3
VCDI 0 0 0 32 101 1216 12251 19744
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2105 116 1329 1129 160 7 0
OW 0 126 20 165 485 283 8 0
VODI 0 151 6 113 436 639 59 0
ODI 0 67 11 138 394 866 471 2
CDI 0 14 5 111 522 2161 4014 47
VCDI 0 0 0 67 124 446 9371 19698


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