Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-05-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76530 15422 299 1874 720 40 0 0
OW 50 496 57 1025 841 138 25 0
VODI 0 190 35 552 1854 369 98 0
ODI 0 83 24 337 1191 1148 303 4
CDI 0 55 16 436 2695 4809 2418 20
VCDI 0 0 0 61 921 8562 41208 22142
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76282 16033 307 2107 725 22 2 0
OW 50 460 51 866 1179 188 32 0
VODI 0 194 20 466 1751 617 100 0
ODI 0 120 20 321 1324 1428 481 0
CDI 0 56 11 470 2806 5988 1978 2
VCDI 0 0 0 65 787 13592 35926 20221
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76758 16359 332 2151 695 29 0 0
OW 49 203 74 1308 622 36 5 0
VODI 0 87 9 689 2061 281 107 0
ODI 0 23 10 232 2473 1237 236 1
CDI 0 11 5 162 2172 7070 2950 126
VCDI 0 1 1 38 350 9476 33253 25366
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76584 16900 387 2573 828 53 0 0
OW 32 199 45 1149 1061 122 13 0
VODI 0 98 10 474 2385 485 108 0
ODI 0 28 11 253 1893 2187 247 0
CDI 0 32 3 190 2016 8503 2696 0
VCDI 0 18 6 46 511 9532 29077 26293
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76584 16940 391 2797 1000 59 0 0
OW 32 153 40 931 1033 120 15 0
VODI 0 98 9 464 2273 507 99 0
ODI 0 35 11 254 1802 2167 258 0
CDI 0 26 5 188 2024 8164 2654 0
VCDI 0 23 6 51 562 9865 29115 26293

Date: 2020-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77212 16834 397 2725 930 51 1 0
OW 29 275 39 1040 1339 148 20 0
VODI 0 112 18 472 2525 813 72 0
ODI 0 32 12 256 1506 2737 432 16
CDI 0 39 3 188 2043 6637 5095 346
VCDI 0 8 2 62 477 7512 26244 28349
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77212 16894 402 2954 1221 71 3 0
OW 29 207 35 806 1313 144 15 0
VODI 0 115 16 462 2282 921 75 0
ODI 0 34 11 269 1414 2529 408 6
CDI 0 39 5 188 1991 6757 4907 333
VCDI 0 11 2 64 599 7476 26456 28372

Date: 2020-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77145 17261 387 2460 781 24 0 0
OW 32 408 60 1079 673 50 10 0
VODI 0 97 28 1124 1806 143 30 0
ODI 0 13 1 159 3296 1083 80 0
CDI 0 16 4 86 1847 9026 2243 9
VCDI 0 0 0 5 111 2446 27214 35811
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77149 17270 399 3131 1613 93 7 0
OW 28 269 35 714 1433 300 32 0
VODI 0 169 28 488 1957 1627 171 8
ODI 0 45 13 331 1182 2357 833 5
CDI 0 39 2 226 2089 6281 7313 504
VCDI 0 3 3 23 240 2114 21221 35303

Date: 2020-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77888 17142 363 2454 962 40 0 0
OW 29 416 83 1313 881 57 11 0
VODI 0 87 21 827 2465 246 38 0
ODI 0 13 3 199 2536 2215 137 0
CDI 0 15 1 105 1735 8409 3769 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 202 3093 24281 35012
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77893 16971 370 3162 2103 224 12 0
OW 24 315 50 696 1526 484 39 0
VODI 0 299 29 429 1870 2041 207 0
ODI 0 57 20 369 1101 2558 661 0
CDI 0 29 1 226 1923 7158 8221 44
VCDI 0 2 1 16 258 1595 19096 34968

Date: 2020-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78544 17287 340 2620 858 28 0 0
OW 25 487 103 1357 1156 56 9 0
VODI 0 104 33 845 2895 590 49 0
ODI 0 27 6 269 2156 3189 213 0
CDI 0 9 3 137 1347 5880 5564 3
VCDI 0 0 0 32 234 2623 27300 30670
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78549 17079 381 3378 2471 370 17 0
OW 20 390 54 737 1448 838 56 0
VODI 0 322 26 470 1599 2176 323 0
ODI 0 96 18 396 1188 2228 1236 2
CDI 0 27 6 201 1732 5219 9923 47
VCDI 0 0 0 78 208 1535 21580 30624


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