Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2020-05-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5 905 20 95 8 0 0 0
OW 0 154 25 333 126 3 0 0
VODI 0 84 9 165 316 35 3 0
ODI 0 29 5 124 272 115 25 0
CDI 0 23 3 142 532 722 349 18
VCDI 0 11 2 119 823 3582 10773 12127
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7 1041 28 189 12 0 0 0
OW 0 219 19 337 81 0 0 0
VODI 0 106 10 134 244 51 5 0
ODI 0 42 10 140 251 182 28 8
CDI 0 33 2 169 560 1055 462 9
VCDI 0 15 3 165 918 3299 10114 12134
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8 1460 48 219 13 0 0 0
OW 0 125 29 288 67 5 1 0
VODI 0 19 3 223 332 26 3 0
ODI 0 18 4 99 444 196 19 0
CDI 0 17 5 200 971 1376 318 0
VCDI 0 0 0 69 701 3036 9892 11848
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 42 1716 55 201 11 0 0 0
OW 0 77 20 292 68 1 1 0
VODI 0 31 7 164 356 7 4 0
ODI 0 31 4 85 383 185 31 0
CDI 0 44 6 189 1186 1022 633 0
VCDI 0 2 3 35 521 3202 14379 7088
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 42 1753 61 243 12 0 1 0
OW 0 47 14 219 50 1 0 0
VODI 0 29 7 198 316 5 5 0
ODI 0 25 4 84 437 175 38 0
CDI 0 35 5 178 1141 1043 676 0
VCDI 0 12 4 44 569 3193 14328 7088

Date: 2020-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10 1952 59 221 21 0 0 0
OW 0 87 14 154 157 2 0 0
VODI 0 51 7 112 347 79 3 0
ODI 0 78 7 102 270 426 29 0
CDI 0 41 11 210 939 1364 735 0
VCDI 0 0 0 51 516 5106 13150 5771
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10 1970 59 232 39 2 0 0
OW 0 74 14 124 115 0 0 0
VODI 0 57 7 143 347 61 3 0
ODI 0 52 8 103 289 400 40 0
CDI 0 52 4 180 815 1445 736 0
VCDI 0 4 6 68 645 5069 13138 5771

Date: 2020-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 39 2072 40 142 32 0 0 0
OW 0 91 36 247 33 2 0 0
VODI 0 11 9 301 312 2 13 0
ODI 0 8 2 90 854 223 56 0
CDI 0 1 2 69 971 2155 427 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 191 5928 12378 5332
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 39 1891 40 209 47 1 0 0
OW 0 99 19 139 142 4 0 0
VODI 0 100 13 176 370 92 9 0
ODI 0 59 7 109 467 394 132 0
CDI 0 28 8 164 837 1541 1092 4
VCDI 0 6 2 65 530 6278 11641 5328

Date: 2020-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 2136 65 238 32 1 0 0
OW 0 29 18 371 77 15 13 0
VODI 0 18 1 166 522 54 10 0
ODI 0 12 1 43 733 428 40 0
CDI 0 15 2 75 979 2353 340 0
VCDI 0 5 5 34 365 6075 11732 5078
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 1940 41 249 78 1 0 0
OW 0 85 21 183 176 15 2 0
VODI 0 90 10 193 481 216 36 0
ODI 0 43 8 82 467 719 106 0
CDI 0 29 5 149 810 1795 989 0
VCDI 0 28 7 71 696 6180 11002 5078

Date: 2020-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 2224 68 328 39 23 1 0
OW 0 53 16 333 169 21 0 0
VODI 0 35 5 180 637 114 13 0
ODI 0 24 2 91 547 762 35 0
CDI 0 25 3 107 976 2210 737 3
VCDI 0 8 3 35 428 6179 11655 3991
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 2019 48 336 112 16 1 0
OW 0 94 19 198 277 52 2 0
VODI 0 124 10 142 539 307 30 0
ODI 0 61 10 92 317 857 190 1
CDI 0 35 5 231 893 2076 1256 18
VCDI 0 36 5 75 658 6001 10962 3975


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