Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-05-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 6 2 59 6 0 0 0
OW 0 112 16 100 86 2 7 0
VODI 0 13 3 54 99 78 14 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 175 125 32 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 340 637 335 62
VCDI 0 0 0 0 331 2964 10716 29463
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 37 3 72 34 0 10 0
OW 0 123 7 98 175 17 24 0
VODI 0 45 10 74 226 60 19 0
ODI 0 6 1 79 310 167 84 0
CDI 0 2 1 26 632 581 349 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 784 2849 11233 27712
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 192 14 65 49 0 14 0
OW 0 25 10 117 216 6 13 0
VODI 0 4 2 124 413 99 10 0
ODI 0 3 1 55 505 254 63 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 771 722 386 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 566 2414 12347 26376
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 150 12 44 97 17 11 0
OW 0 53 14 110 298 34 6 0
VODI 0 44 10 141 437 129 32 0
ODI 0 17 7 95 414 266 151 29
CDI 0 0 1 118 635 879 348 141
VCDI 0 0 0 43 731 2648 14046 23658
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 180 12 91 125 14 13 0
OW 0 15 15 65 262 44 10 0
VODI 0 54 12 148 531 125 26 0
ODI 0 14 3 98 376 321 113 28
CDI 0 1 2 105 597 878 398 151
VCDI 0 0 0 44 721 2591 14034 23649

Date: 2020-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 159 13 82 225 14 0 0
OW 0 61 12 141 311 24 4 0
VODI 0 66 13 167 535 91 35 0
ODI 0 25 5 121 453 203 222 17
CDI 0 5 3 133 786 752 481 184
VCDI 0 0 0 29 675 2566 16093 21160
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 173 15 133 216 15 0 0
OW 0 49 11 116 334 34 6 0
VODI 0 62 14 166 619 85 28 0
ODI 0 25 4 112 430 236 170 19
CDI 0 7 2 109 745 724 489 178
VCDI 0 0 0 37 641 2556 16142 21164

Date: 2020-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 310 38 176 159 12 0 0
OW 0 133 10 290 229 10 0 0
VODI 0 41 9 413 541 58 4 0
ODI 0 6 1 97 728 322 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 79 963 1729 295 2
VCDI 0 0 0 13 197 3343 17786 17834
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 201 21 224 236 16 0 0
OW 0 85 14 155 277 61 7 0
VODI 0 141 15 223 435 120 38 0
ODI 0 33 5 234 361 342 237 1
CDI 0 22 1 148 814 1157 541 43
VCDI 0 8 2 84 694 3778 17300 17792

Date: 2020-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 436 46 369 222 15 0 0
OW 0 139 19 320 310 21 0 0
VODI 0 46 11 198 612 157 6 0
ODI 0 11 2 105 602 293 31 0
CDI 0 4 3 121 1427 1487 361 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 1058 4433 17956 15027
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 268 33 285 312 30 0 0
OW 0 147 11 161 258 70 10 0
VODI 0 137 19 195 490 173 57 0
ODI 0 52 13 232 467 220 160 0
CDI 0 17 2 191 1201 1430 506 0
VCDI 0 15 3 67 1503 4483 17621 15027

Date: 2020-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 600 60 418 157 14 0 0
OW 0 315 25 321 196 67 14 0
VODI 0 102 20 288 481 148 63 0
ODI 0 29 6 160 441 253 156 4
CDI 0 12 6 191 1192 1252 771 16
VCDI 0 0 0 33 361 4026 21353 12315
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 432 51 411 267 55 3 0
OW 0 232 24 149 257 80 37 0
VODI 0 230 12 225 286 230 143 6
ODI 0 113 16 208 350 212 294 7
CDI 0 43 11 307 972 1378 1389 12
VCDI 0 8 3 111 696 3805 20491 12310


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