Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-05-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72137 15381 242 1332 319 4 0 0
OW 63 339 74 606 532 16 7 0
VODI 0 92 26 498 1015 310 34 0
ODI 0 30 13 211 1183 671 87 0
CDI 0 6 3 91 1195 2276 691 62
VCDI 0 2 1 50 911 7613 28682 50243
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72959 15015 184 1253 379 10 10 0
OW 62 381 54 478 638 68 24 0
VODI 0 99 29 472 1067 292 56 0
ODI 0 41 14 292 1161 679 179 0
CDI 0 20 13 150 1493 2168 643 8
VCDI 0 3 3 105 1778 10003 28360 46405
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73378 15336 201 1074 263 7 14 0
OW 61 179 75 725 550 48 13 0
VODI 0 41 16 645 1257 268 24 0
ODI 0 11 5 224 1916 649 142 0
CDI 0 0 0 121 1970 3318 706 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 1562 8984 28635 44609
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73990 15190 207 1171 433 67 11 0
OW 60 474 58 672 786 121 29 0
VODI 0 235 47 593 1482 294 129 0
ODI 0 86 19 399 1298 738 313 29
CDI 0 35 14 342 1981 2503 1042 150
VCDI 0 13 3 200 2109 8315 30080 41330
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73991 15341 213 1323 515 74 16 0
OW 59 316 57 557 708 118 31 0
VODI 0 247 42 546 1447 292 123 0
ODI 0 88 18 401 1282 754 275 28
CDI 0 31 16 360 2007 2548 1120 163
VCDI 0 10 2 190 2130 8252 30039 41318

Date: 2020-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75193 14715 198 1150 650 80 6 0
OW 56 619 64 805 746 129 38 0
VODI 0 388 54 609 1463 280 177 0
ODI 0 132 29 498 1158 562 423 17
CDI 0 69 21 425 2079 2516 1431 204
VCDI 0 13 4 212 1859 7392 34104 36480
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75193 14814 200 1309 673 91 13 0
OW 56 505 58 648 737 120 37 0
VODI 0 387 58 598 1477 302 156 0
ODI 0 150 28 474 1239 604 361 19
CDI 0 70 19 453 1944 2415 1508 199
VCDI 0 10 7 217 1885 7427 34104 36483

Date: 2020-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74906 15748 235 1236 495 59 2 0
OW 52 737 87 846 556 80 7 0
VODI 0 197 48 1191 1380 204 44 0
ODI 0 52 15 293 2440 705 115 0
CDI 0 14 10 344 2132 4981 1100 10
VCDI 0 0 0 79 869 7042 33427 35310
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74906 15346 224 1474 798 153 28 0
OW 52 564 51 497 722 177 58 0
VODI 0 536 59 620 1289 346 186 0
ODI 0 188 34 580 1242 817 487 5
CDI 0 94 22 504 2094 3620 1939 49
VCDI 0 20 5 314 1727 7958 31997 35266

Date: 2020-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75558 15646 262 1749 741 56 0 0
OW 50 396 80 1044 858 101 9 0
VODI 0 112 23 553 1983 360 29 0
ODI 0 50 15 271 1451 1018 130 0
CDI 0 43 11 403 2937 4647 1879 0
VCDI 0 4 1 82 1654 9095 35508 28239
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75557 14849 228 1624 1108 194 13 0
OW 51 572 49 462 774 268 40 0
VODI 0 510 51 580 1299 487 173 0
ODI 0 183 31 573 1253 760 503 0
CDI 0 76 23 620 2708 4378 2531 0
VCDI 0 61 10 243 2482 9190 34295 28239

Date: 2020-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76530 15422 299 1874 720 40 0 0
OW 50 496 57 1025 841 138 25 0
VODI 0 190 35 552 1854 369 98 0
ODI 0 83 24 337 1191 1148 303 4
CDI 0 55 16 436 2695 4809 2418 20
VCDI 0 0 0 61 921 8562 41208 22142
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76530 14616 248 1680 1305 237 23 0
OW 50 724 59 481 826 255 78 0
VODI 0 548 49 723 987 532 301 7
ODI 0 195 39 539 1059 872 607 18
CDI 0 87 26 613 2447 4620 3263 14
VCDI 0 76 10 249 1598 8550 39780 22127


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