Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2020-05-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70345 15154 251 2044 775 12 0 0
OW 63 22 17 235 737 77 1 0
VODI 0 15 7 97 709 431 15 0
ODI 0 13 4 41 569 685 48 0
CDI 0 9 3 19 515 1969 504 0
VCDI 0 10 3 35 140 2767 7369 3390
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70708 15229 253 1857 866 2 0 0
OW 63 30 19 209 688 129 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 97 706 326 22 0
ODI 0 0 0 50 583 619 58 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 450 1586 411 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 92 2006 6695 5288
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71110 15153 262 1682 305 2 0 0
OW 65 49 25 504 391 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 259 818 70 11 0
ODI 0 0 0 59 1305 377 50 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 671 1814 206 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 79 2396 6106 5316
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71860 15203 232 1224 289 3 0 0
OW 63 73 37 479 404 8 1 0
VODI 0 23 7 268 881 156 12 0
ODI 0 0 3 81 916 480 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 586 1501 291 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 145 2297 6516 5013
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71860 15241 239 1312 343 4 0 0
OW 63 44 32 388 366 21 1 0
VODI 0 14 3 252 834 139 11 0
ODI 0 0 5 89 854 333 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 639 1462 238 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 185 2486 6569 5013

Date: 2020-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72041 15343 217 1210 357 6 0 0
OW 63 80 34 366 496 22 2 0
VODI 0 37 14 239 737 237 27 0
ODI 0 14 6 97 622 430 49 0
CDI 0 1 3 53 563 1177 117 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 523 2468 5515 5918
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72041 15379 226 1267 506 9 0 0
OW 63 40 25 303 355 44 0 0
VODI 0 36 13 222 690 205 23 0
ODI 0 13 6 110 560 373 44 0
CDI 0 7 4 45 621 1044 114 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 566 2665 5529 5918

Date: 2020-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73361 14516 129 896 135 4 0 0
OW 61 176 75 423 202 17 0 0
VODI 0 39 16 408 565 47 0 0
ODI 0 8 5 71 1220 247 47 0
CDI 0 0 1 36 463 1836 160 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 259 1919 5653 6103
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73361 14455 146 1074 414 29 0 0
OW 61 175 43 223 283 68 14 0
VODI 0 66 20 247 643 102 32 0
ODI 0 36 10 152 505 293 57 0
CDI 0 7 6 95 425 1029 156 0
VCDI 0 0 1 45 574 2549 5601 6103

Date: 2020-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74120 14013 169 965 321 19 0 0
OW 60 241 46 299 302 88 2 0
VODI 0 90 28 354 482 164 72 0
ODI 0 37 6 204 715 289 111 0
CDI 0 24 9 90 1002 791 293 0
VCDI 0 0 3 59 522 2803 4507 5800
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74120 13941 162 936 544 66 8 0
OW 60 198 37 222 258 95 17 0
VODI 0 121 24 299 519 201 43 0
ODI 0 60 17 238 365 207 115 0
CDI 0 34 11 180 797 576 212 0
VCDI 0 51 10 96 861 3009 4590 5800

Date: 2020-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74399 14093 153 984 422 47 2 0
OW 58 321 36 286 364 100 14 0
VODI 0 201 32 299 666 138 107 0
ODI 0 70 13 243 579 222 134 0
CDI 0 37 10 105 836 838 481 0
VCDI 0 0 6 64 420 1714 6409 4197
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74398 14024 158 999 747 84 11 0
OW 59 255 11 140 283 99 13 0
VODI 0 251 34 250 502 139 93 0
ODI 0 99 23 291 223 170 106 0
CDI 0 45 13 205 854 632 216 0
VCDI 0 48 11 96 678 1935 6708 4197


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