Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-04-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-04-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68681 15646 189 1040 622 83 19 0
OW 53 296 43 382 460 147 38 0
VODI 0 76 11 273 644 284 108 0
ODI 0 38 11 46 564 410 117 0
CDI 0 5 7 88 474 1133 475 46
VCDI 0 0 0 79 719 5949 29145 58647
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-04-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68767 15617 206 1054 727 123 1 0
OW 69 233 29 363 440 200 23 0
VODI 0 97 17 173 596 397 106 0
ODI 0 48 13 59 471 505 160 0
CDI 0 4 7 93 393 1215 442 66
VCDI 0 0 0 62 736 5858 28266 59412
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-04-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68597 15667 231 1271 548 55 2 0
OW 69 187 59 465 548 83 7 0
VODI 0 12 6 144 838 287 53 0
ODI 0 2 0 41 689 583 131 2
CDI 0 0 0 10 559 1712 679 23
VCDI 0 0 0 0 446 5544 24899 62599
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-04-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68920 15719 239 1371 544 19 0 0
OW 71 218 65 530 549 55 0 0
VODI 0 31 14 320 1008 188 19 0
ODI 0 0 0 89 749 496 60 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 640 1666 492 58
VCDI 0 0 0 27 788 5274 27684 59104
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68921 15702 238 1409 598 10 0 0
OW 70 240 64 439 510 61 2 0
VODI 0 25 16 360 922 181 24 0
ODI 0 1 0 108 758 502 56 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 697 1598 510 61
VCDI 0 0 0 18 793 5346 27663 59101

Date: 2020-04-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69963 14770 222 1445 456 13 0 0
OW 70 254 46 579 566 40 2 0
VODI 2 34 14 338 1122 197 32 0
ODI 0 0 0 92 824 398 67 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 1000 1588 492 19
VCDI 0 0 0 1 752 5905 27753 57953
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69961 14770 218 1466 527 7 0 0
OW 72 255 45 541 460 44 4 0
VODI 2 33 19 343 1105 194 42 0
ODI 0 0 0 110 816 379 81 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 1055 1466 518 22
VCDI 0 0 0 0 757 6051 27701 57950

Date: 2020-04-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69987 14536 190 1229 487 15 0 0
OW 62 366 79 895 455 21 1 0
VODI 0 35 24 758 1023 57 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 88 1286 528 83 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 1082 2840 579 32
VCDI 0 0 0 7 265 5457 26114 58408
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69987 14611 217 1550 731 36 0 0
OW 62 264 50 703 451 46 2 0
VODI 0 55 21 493 811 147 19 0
ODI 0 7 5 152 787 447 84 2
CDI 0 0 0 97 1093 1866 601 44
VCDI 0 0 0 34 725 6376 26078 58394

Date: 2020-04-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69639 15192 266 1822 563 3 0 0
OW 62 116 32 829 663 20 0 0
VODI 0 11 6 346 983 106 12 1
ODI 0 3 3 116 905 525 95 7
CDI 0 6 1 80 1033 2384 575 65
VCDI 0 0 0 48 505 6620 25261 58144
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69639 14974 241 1764 674 20 0 0
OW 62 269 37 514 530 68 15 0
VODI 0 64 23 534 618 181 45 3
ODI 0 5 2 181 644 416 209 16
CDI 0 8 2 135 1077 1898 787 143
VCDI 0 8 3 113 1109 7075 24887 58055

Date: 2020-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69680 15401 266 1925 726 5 0 0
OW 63 254 62 423 590 49 3 0
VODI 0 34 19 389 927 194 17 0
ODI 0 40 1 269 824 539 80 8
CDI 0 18 9 181 1042 2211 544 31
VCDI 0 6 1 71 1081 7676 24854 56535
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69678 14927 238 1656 685 39 2 0
OW 65 457 42 428 450 81 4 0
VODI 0 175 39 369 558 182 51 0
ODI 0 34 6 200 464 404 300 46
CDI 0 56 12 197 1045 1688 1028 196
VCDI 0 104 21 408 1988 8280 24113 56332


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