Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-04-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67785 15447 212 1227 478 134 36 0
OW 51 248 56 759 536 160 35 0
VODI 0 21 5 313 768 353 81 0
ODI 0 6 1 93 525 526 116 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 564 956 398 20
VCDI 0 0 0 13 627 6217 31489 56764
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-04-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69092 14498 172 988 451 131 18 0
OW 51 460 63 553 437 134 34 0
VODI 0 101 18 312 793 322 89 0
ODI 0 49 2 87 455 542 89 0
CDI 0 24 9 81 407 1099 321 133
VCDI 0 9 6 86 687 6461 32409 55375
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-04-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69763 14312 168 828 379 72 30 0
OW 52 393 52 516 442 104 43 0
VODI 0 69 25 311 540 290 118 0
ODI 0 26 8 81 529 571 194 0
CDI 0 21 6 56 450 984 670 17
VCDI 0 1 3 66 766 5089 30034 58969
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-04-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69924 14474 200 1002 537 82 3 0
OW 52 294 47 413 456 157 8 0
VODI 0 71 14 278 626 284 53 0
ODI 0 42 7 56 578 426 81 0
CDI 0 9 9 62 472 1034 403 24
VCDI 0 0 0 67 607 5847 30160 58189
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69924 14547 208 1049 604 89 2 0
OW 52 213 40 401 389 144 10 0
VODI 0 76 12 241 639 289 43 0
ODI 0 45 8 56 564 458 87 0
CDI 0 9 9 54 470 992 352 30
VCDI 0 0 0 77 610 5858 30214 58183

Date: 2020-04-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68648 15733 219 1070 626 78 0 0
OW 56 275 31 374 461 145 16 0
VODI 0 88 21 221 662 338 65 0
ODI 0 49 9 60 550 496 134 2
CDI 0 11 9 77 526 1231 383 27
VCDI 0 0 0 84 787 6246 29505 57735
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68634 15799 222 1144 678 86 1 0
OW 70 188 29 344 426 135 16 0
VODI 0 103 19 168 693 354 55 0
ODI 0 51 12 61 549 532 133 1
CDI 0 15 5 74 472 1177 385 27
VCDI 0 0 2 95 794 6250 29513 57736

Date: 2020-04-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69004 15217 189 918 477 88 5 0
OW 54 401 69 554 436 65 14 0
VODI 0 22 19 215 775 240 57 0
ODI 0 2 0 63 711 702 135 10
CDI 0 0 0 32 426 2029 525 110
VCDI 0 0 0 10 544 4807 29605 58518
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68989 15289 218 1214 817 136 14 0
OW 69 189 24 267 500 189 40 0
VODI 0 119 19 99 583 507 133 0
ODI 0 41 10 52 386 649 169 1
CDI 0 4 6 70 291 1308 470 12
VCDI 0 0 0 90 792 5142 29515 58625

Date: 2020-04-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68697 15701 248 1414 521 36 0 0
OW 69 185 56 540 539 76 3 0
VODI 0 21 5 192 964 203 27 0
ODI 0 2 0 69 764 498 108 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 645 1498 518 37
VCDI 0 0 0 23 709 5315 25008 62323
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68697 15578 247 1549 869 79 0 0
OW 69 213 36 329 630 154 12 0
VODI 0 86 14 171 730 329 77 0
ODI 0 29 9 61 511 508 130 0
CDI 0 3 3 83 499 1236 504 39
VCDI 0 0 0 79 903 5320 24941 62321

Date: 2020-04-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69973 14808 214 1401 498 2 0 0
OW 71 235 53 524 540 51 1 0
VODI 0 28 12 346 1100 216 32 0
ODI 0 0 1 102 711 466 66 5
CDI 0 0 0 34 886 1584 388 91
VCDI 0 0 0 0 757 5039 26266 60547
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69980 14592 213 1538 772 26 0 0
OW 64 267 28 331 761 133 3 0
VODI 0 148 23 222 850 333 44 0
ODI 0 48 11 157 451 637 113 2
CDI 0 16 3 103 665 1380 511 148
VCDI 0 0 2 56 993 4849 26082 60493


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