Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2020-03-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66939 15346 216 1124 502 75 1 0
OW 52 302 43 475 465 42 12 0
VODI 0 131 22 288 746 123 25 0
ODI 0 36 10 88 715 276 46 0
CDI 0 11 1 68 680 1110 184 2
VCDI 0 0 0 48 507 3143 9860 5386
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67772 14755 184 1046 491 70 12 0
OW 52 341 60 474 430 74 18 0
VODI 0 113 15 321 752 194 33 0
ODI 0 40 5 121 629 345 63 0
CDI 0 14 4 58 767 687 294 0
VCDI 0 1 3 40 436 2648 9050 6688
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68564 14617 191 1009 395 75 3 0
OW 51 220 60 589 430 27 8 0
VODI 0 54 18 373 945 112 12 0
ODI 0 14 2 103 836 335 29 0
CDI 0 5 1 46 847 708 208 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 450 3024 7716 7015
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68611 14423 196 995 508 50 11 0
OW 51 284 48 543 617 56 13 0
VODI 0 64 15 227 1020 248 17 0
ODI 0 18 8 61 683 428 27 0
CDI 0 7 3 36 664 782 177 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 239 2573 8767 6612
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68611 14405 195 1073 574 56 13 0
OW 51 287 46 466 632 59 10 0
VODI 0 76 17 213 916 287 21 0
ODI 0 21 9 72 652 410 23 0
CDI 0 7 3 36 698 762 179 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 259 2563 8766 6612

Date: 2020-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68565 14354 208 1117 616 72 2 0
OW 51 385 37 497 704 99 7 0
VODI 0 110 19 250 782 315 20 0
ODI 0 23 9 94 545 421 32 0
CDI 0 11 8 36 598 730 222 5
VCDI 0 0 0 58 322 2630 9226 5920
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68565 14426 212 1173 647 72 2 0
OW 51 305 37 477 738 103 6 0
VODI 0 114 15 214 719 358 24 0
ODI 0 27 9 85 485 378 34 0
CDI 0 10 7 45 588 703 208 6
VCDI 0 1 1 58 390 2653 9235 5919

Date: 2020-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67553 15150 183 994 442 58 19 0
OW 51 333 75 726 409 54 6 0
VODI 0 41 13 431 1148 154 21 0
ODI 0 2 2 58 1060 424 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 56 430 1007 180 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 158 2437 9237 6158
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67553 15254 229 1562 838 85 21 0
OW 51 202 24 354 812 143 13 0
VODI 0 53 7 157 654 388 35 0
ODI 0 12 9 67 519 255 56 0
CDI 0 5 4 58 478 561 145 0
VCDI 0 0 0 68 346 2702 9222 6158

Date: 2020-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67668 15120 196 1203 548 100 15 0
OW 51 196 58 747 549 95 26 0
VODI 0 19 8 317 867 329 46 0
ODI 0 0 0 61 538 470 54 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 338 754 166 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 231 2481 11005 4833
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67668 15123 221 1614 1056 193 25 0
OW 51 169 32 390 446 233 33 0
VODI 0 39 5 227 480 377 63 0
ODI 0 4 4 63 396 341 88 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 389 489 202 1
VCDI 0 0 0 11 304 2596 10901 4832

Date: 2020-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67785 15418 208 1221 478 99 23 0
OW 51 247 55 734 534 115 33 0
VODI 0 21 5 302 721 292 48 0
ODI 0 6 1 92 400 340 83 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 386 437 172 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 405 3339 8167 6841
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67785 15468 224 1594 787 172 41 0
OW 51 169 33 423 472 200 49 0
VODI 0 43 11 178 526 321 74 0
ODI 0 12 0 95 322 314 92 0
CDI 0 0 1 83 355 369 185 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 462 3246 8085 6841


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