Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-03-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 6 22 46 0
VODI 0 0 0 21 65 14 40 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 72 42 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 54 193 122 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 1354 9833 33878
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 1 28 55 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 23 30 57 3
CDI 0 0 0 0 58 169 131 20
VCDI 0 0 0 0 143 1451 9176 34521
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 24 48 9 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 100 51 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 54 315 136 38
VCDI 0 0 0 0 121 945 7602 36402
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 13 6 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 31 73 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 29 221 63 23
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 1158 8282 35901
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 6 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 35 68 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 30 199 79 30
VCDI 0 0 0 0 49 1185 8272 35894

Date: 2020-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 39 0 18
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 165 107 111
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 1063 8795 35541
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 14
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 177 95 117
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 1072 8807 35539

Date: 2020-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 79 28 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 48 333 85 27
VCDI 0 0 0 0 99 1377 10536 33239
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 18 14 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 77 227 52 31
VCDI 0 0 0 0 140 1497 10571 33235

Date: 2020-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 29 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 42 58 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 88 228 176 33
VCDI 0 0 0 0 127 1858 14256 28944
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 20 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 26 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 45 235 210 17
VCDI 0 0 0 0 213 1892 14201 28960

Date: 2020-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 7 27 33 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 97 123 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 175 370 111 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 198 2002 14066 28614
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 18 17 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 75 106 48 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 174 346 169 20
VCDI 0 0 0 0 210 2062 14019 28597


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