Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-03-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-03-20:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 66939 15401 218 1127 502 75 1 0 OW 52 320 48 493 471 64 58 0 VODI 0 145 27 339 826 137 65 0 ODI 0 44 11 102 807 329 91 0 CDI 0 22 4 75 775 1418 450 77 VCDI 0 10 2 123 729 5248 30058 59365	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-22:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67772 14785 187 1053 502 70 12 0 OW 52 362 65 482 436 74 18 0 VODI 0 126 22 349 766 223 88 0 ODI 0 45 6 147 672 394 132 3 CDI 0 19 5 71 862 1026 580 82 VCDI 0 2 4 60 748 5288 27673 61785	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-24:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68564 14701 202 1066 405 75 3 0 OW 51 233 65 622 449 27 8 0 VODI 0 64 21 439 1056 131 19 0 ODI 0 14 4 131 1080 448 43 0 CDI 0 5 1 54 1003 1190 361 59 VCDI 0 0 0 8 585 4824 24198 64839	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-26:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68611 14522 209 1042 517 50 11 0 OW 51 339 56 585 628 56 13 0 VODI 0 105 19 312 1141 255 24 0 ODI 0 39 8 103 837 536 45 0 CDI 0 9 3 38 855 1177 341 25 VCDI 0 0 0 18 359 4849 28236 61024	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68611 14530 212 1132 584 56 13 0 OW 51 327 54 525 646 59 10 0 VODI 0 107 17 287 1032 293 24 0 ODI 0 39 9 96 801 508 40 0 CDI 0 11 3 38 880 1147 366 34 VCDI 0 0 0 20 394 4860 28217 61015

Date: 2020-03-28:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68565 14421 210 1155 654 72 2 0 OW 51 414 49 537 713 99 7 0 VODI 0 143 36 367 838 317 20 0 ODI 0 24 10 175 665 491 48 18 CDI 0 11 8 43 734 1069 438 127 VCDI 0 0 0 58 414 5191 30320 58534	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68565 14490 216 1220 685 72 2 0 OW 51 349 57 524 751 103 6 0 VODI 0 136 23 338 788 363 24 0 ODI 0 27 9 148 594 418 50 14 CDI 0 10 7 47 718 1036 426 141 VCDI 0 1 1 58 482 5247 30327 58524

Date: 2020-03-30:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67553 15221 183 1003 474 82 19 0 OW 51 347 80 770 443 62 6 0 VODI 0 44 13 454 1258 169 21 0 ODI 0 2 2 58 1258 586 80 1 CDI 0 0 0 56 516 1596 417 38 VCDI 0 0 0 1 270 4578 26418 62918	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67553 15302 229 1565 865 109 21 0 OW 51 232 24 368 832 150 13 0 VODI 0 62 12 203 717 409 35 0 ODI 0 13 9 80 632 337 123 7 CDI 0 5 4 58 661 979 308 113 VCDI 0 0 0 68 512 5089 26461 62837

Date: 2020-04-01:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67668 15163 199 1216 549 154 15 0 OW 51 200 62 772 564 122 26 0 VODI 0 19 8 329 930 405 48 0 ODI 0 0 0 61 612 611 88 1 CDI 0 0 0 9 444 1174 477 150 VCDI 0 0 0 2 365 4902 32206 57446	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67668 15159 223 1620 1057 243 25 0 OW 51 179 36 402 453 264 33 0 VODI 0 40 6 259 527 430 67 0 ODI 0 4 4 63 424 451 156 0 CDI 0 0 0 34 468 913 533 126 VCDI 0 0 0 11 535 5067 32046 57471

Date: 2020-04-03:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67785 15447 212 1227 478 134 36 0 OW 51 248 56 759 536 160 35 0 VODI 0 21 5 313 768 353 81 0 ODI 0 6 1 93 525 526 116 0 CDI 0 0 0 28 564 956 398 20 VCDI 0 0 0 13 627 6217 31489 56764	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67785 15491 225 1599 787 200 55 0 OW 51 176 37 431 472 227 50 0 VODI 0 43 11 208 587 388 83 0 ODI 0 12 0 95 421 516 173 0 CDI 0 0 1 83 536 885 427 83 VCDI 0 0 0 17 695 6130 31367 56701

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