Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2020-03-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-03-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67250 15898 181 826 319 82 1 0
OW 52 349 46 544 327 55 7 0
VODI 0 127 21 358 673 108 20 0
ODI 0 14 8 174 479 254 47 0
CDI 0 6 2 85 547 740 192 1
VCDI 0 11 2 44 475 4032 9707 5036
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67443 15284 181 779 397 104 3 0
OW 56 398 56 492 324 80 18 0
VODI 3 166 19 373 714 176 34 0
ODI 0 28 4 130 492 320 68 0
CDI 0 2 5 60 553 858 211 1
VCDI 0 0 0 48 415 3549 10276 4980
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68196 14903 191 918 308 63 4 0
OW 52 222 42 522 376 42 9 0
VODI 0 69 18 364 660 112 20 0
ODI 0 16 6 119 603 318 62 0
CDI 0 2 3 75 644 833 238 0
VCDI 0 0 0 35 491 2317 9587 6660
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67207 15365 195 1042 423 90 5 0
OW 52 328 40 511 396 55 8 0
VODI 0 126 31 341 645 121 27 0
ODI 0 47 11 119 748 232 43 0
CDI 0 19 4 79 851 794 207 0
VCDI 0 5 1 38 500 2273 10913 5208
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67207 15354 196 1089 455 90 5 0
OW 52 332 38 468 405 48 8 0
VODI 0 133 30 334 642 114 24 0
ODI 0 42 12 119 761 223 42 0
CDI 0 22 5 72 785 851 182 0
VCDI 0 7 1 48 515 2239 10942 5208

Date: 2020-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67293 14916 206 1201 561 73 20 0
OW 52 300 53 429 469 64 23 0
VODI 0 119 14 279 730 183 41 0
ODI 0 28 6 126 662 304 73 0
CDI 0 7 3 57 801 736 336 0
VCDI 0 0 1 29 405 2891 9646 5963
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67293 14950 216 1250 569 72 23 0
OW 52 272 45 390 518 56 15 0
VODI 0 111 13 297 739 192 43 0
ODI 0 27 5 96 652 291 78 0
CDI 0 10 3 55 751 718 281 2
VCDI 0 0 1 33 399 2922 9699 5961

Date: 2020-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68322 14699 171 867 246 61 14 0
OW 52 289 54 577 382 27 12 0
VODI 0 78 20 442 898 122 16 0
ODI 0 13 6 90 993 301 17 0
CDI 0 1 1 37 798 855 146 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 445 2891 8330 6823
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68322 14660 186 1098 406 80 18 0
OW 52 258 45 430 463 74 19 0
VODI 0 85 10 289 789 228 24 0
ODI 0 44 5 111 654 306 60 0
CDI 0 28 4 56 754 543 195 2
VCDI 0 5 2 33 696 3026 8219 6821

Date: 2020-03-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68619 14547 201 1012 452 77 2 0
OW 51 244 65 593 513 39 5 0
VODI 0 47 13 356 945 177 9 0
ODI 0 13 2 76 757 394 31 0
CDI 0 1 0 38 671 783 199 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 300 2996 8476 6380
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68618 14500 205 1082 596 103 5 0
OW 52 243 48 425 468 92 13 0
VODI 0 67 20 378 754 262 26 0
ODI 0 9 2 114 663 364 79 0
CDI 0 16 4 37 640 621 245 0
VCDI 0 17 2 55 517 3024 8354 6380

Date: 2020-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68546 14369 185 1037 616 47 12 0
OW 51 334 41 429 807 40 11 0
VODI 0 81 18 222 1025 262 18 0
ODI 0 28 5 73 718 356 37 0
CDI 0 18 4 39 580 690 219 1
VCDI 0 0 1 50 307 2597 9764 5462
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68546 14389 194 1131 848 81 20 0
OW 51 295 33 335 692 179 18 0
VODI 0 77 16 234 920 350 45 0
ODI 0 10 4 47 719 336 121 0
CDI 0 13 4 36 515 512 238 1
VCDI 0 46 3 67 359 2534 9619 5462


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