Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-03-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-03-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 1 24 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 17 31 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 16 172 102 30
VCDI 0 0 0 0 59 1233 9746 34397
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 45 32 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 178 104 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 98 1561 12878 30908
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 21 13 17 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 62 56 34 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 26 317 83 42
VCDI 0 0 0 0 43 1409 11166 32575
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 0 12 16 0
VODI 0 6 4 42 33 17 34 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 51 44 39 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 54 236 76 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 1372 10438 33351
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 14 14 0
VODI 0 6 4 26 19 15 38 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 51 43 37 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 64 236 79 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 1373 10435 33352

Date: 2020-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 20 33 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 33 19 48 1
ODI 0 0 0 0 42 61 39 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 197 92 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 1345 9290 34590
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 23 24 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 15 13 53 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 55 52 44 2
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 188 102 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 1366 9279 34584

Date: 2020-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 30 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 118 95 42 2
CDI 0 0 0 0 74 389 211 28
VCDI 0 0 0 0 159 987 7915 35814
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 5 34 24 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 54 64 92 3
CDI 0 0 0 0 113 204 128 17
VCDI 0 0 0 0 209 1171 7924 35824

Date: 2020-03-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 10 57 8 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 83 31 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 46 243 55 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 85 1063 8829 35324
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 8 15 25 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 48 17 52 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 99 95 65 49
VCDI 0 0 0 0 116 1215 8764 35285

Date: 2020-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 36 12 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 15 206 141 96
VCDI 0 0 0 0 82 1106 7021 37136
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 38 83 15 18
VCDI 0 0 0 0 81 1241 7162 37214


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