Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-03-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-03-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67250 15963 182 826 319 82 1 0
OW 52 376 51 565 328 55 7 0
VODI 0 153 25 387 714 132 28 0
ODI 0 31 9 191 560 309 77 0
CDI 0 25 4 97 610 1053 358 41
VCDI 0 118 8 161 758 6631 29924 58587
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67443 15319 182 784 406 104 3 0
OW 56 414 59 505 330 80 18 0
VODI 3 178 20 413 731 186 74 0
ODI 0 38 5 145 523 388 101 1
CDI 0 15 6 68 613 1232 392 37
VCDI 0 38 6 136 631 6712 32447 56206
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68196 14958 199 935 308 63 4 0
OW 52 233 45 556 380 42 9 0
VODI 0 84 20 395 710 133 37 0
ODI 0 28 7 129 706 409 96 0
CDI 0 17 4 98 775 1249 355 54
VCDI 0 9 1 85 653 4483 30869 59662
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67207 15418 199 1049 423 90 5 0
OW 52 346 47 530 399 67 24 0
VODI 0 143 38 412 702 138 61 0
ODI 0 55 13 149 831 310 83 0
CDI 0 30 6 89 947 1132 437 27
VCDI 0 11 6 81 687 4278 31250 59276
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67207 15410 202 1100 455 90 5 0
OW 52 349 42 488 411 62 22 0
VODI 0 149 38 384 686 131 62 0
ODI 0 50 14 163 840 306 82 0
CDI 0 35 8 84 891 1186 423 28
VCDI 0 10 5 91 706 4240 31266 59275

Date: 2020-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67293 14957 207 1212 563 73 20 0
OW 52 316 59 440 474 84 56 0
VODI 0 132 22 313 775 202 89 1
ODI 0 35 6 146 732 375 115 1
CDI 0 13 7 70 860 1090 579 69
VCDI 0 0 2 89 626 5337 29443 60113
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67293 14991 218 1263 572 72 23 0
OW 52 288 50 402 523 79 39 0
VODI 0 124 21 329 769 205 96 0
ODI 0 34 5 114 726 354 125 2
CDI 0 16 6 71 816 1062 541 79
VCDI 0 0 3 91 624 5389 29478 60103

Date: 2020-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68322 14766 182 902 254 61 14 0
OW 52 307 58 611 397 27 12 0
VODI 0 88 26 471 966 124 16 0
ODI 0 14 8 122 1222 484 59 2
CDI 0 1 1 54 934 1437 431 92
VCDI 0 0 0 4 622 4752 25054 64099
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68322 14704 190 1115 411 80 18 0
OW 52 283 52 448 472 74 19 0
VODI 0 99 14 318 810 262 48 0
ODI 0 52 8 135 748 390 152 3
CDI 0 33 8 80 911 894 384 111
VCDI 0 5 3 68 1043 5185 24965 64079

Date: 2020-03-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68619 14643 216 1059 461 77 2 0
OW 51 282 69 632 522 39 5 0
VODI 0 77 15 455 1085 185 18 0
ODI 0 21 4 116 996 440 44 0
CDI 0 1 0 57 869 1147 322 16
VCDI 0 0 0 16 423 5056 27679 61329
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68618 14570 215 1108 600 103 5 0
OW 52 274 52 449 472 95 13 0
VODI 0 98 24 423 790 281 51 0
ODI 0 37 5 168 801 401 131 0
CDI 0 28 6 80 844 790 373 51
VCDI 0 17 2 107 849 5274 27497 61294

Date: 2020-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68546 14459 192 1079 635 47 12 0
OW 51 373 55 473 815 40 11 0
VODI 0 138 28 330 1095 263 18 0
ODI 0 33 6 127 891 389 52 0
CDI 0 18 4 42 748 1107 453 136
VCDI 0 0 1 50 461 5063 27976 60831
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68546 14468 201 1174 864 81 20 0
OW 51 337 44 377 699 179 18 0
VODI 0 123 24 318 994 360 45 0
ODI 0 32 9 73 837 373 126 0
CDI 0 15 5 75 642 797 359 42
VCDI 0 46 3 84 609 5119 27954 60925


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