Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2020-03-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 64
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 327 2456 43008
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 122 6 49
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 1001 7246 37400
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 35 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 52 24 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 110 958 6174 38492
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 13 15 2
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 34 43 63
VCDI 0 0 0 0 97 880 6411 38304
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 2
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 36 46 60
VCDI 0 0 0 0 97 888 6420 38307

Date: 2020-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 16 9 37 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 34 39 32 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 26 212 122 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 30 1461 11830 32003
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 16 9 37 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 38 43 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 23 203 130 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 1466 11828 32003

Date: 2020-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 11 19 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 17 74 72 4
CDI 0 0 0 4 17 289 97 82
VCDI 0 0 0 1 201 1436 12115 31426
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 8 27 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 16 29 31 4
CDI 0 0 0 2 16 250 91 67
VCDI 0 0 0 3 214 1531 12136 31441

Date: 2020-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 29 21 10 31 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 72 45 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 27 286 103 19
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 1384 11690 32103
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 5 11 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 10 27 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 14 29 37 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 69 184 121 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 42 1497 11657 32114

Date: 2020-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 6 22 46 0
VODI 0 0 0 21 65 14 40 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 72 42 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 54 193 122 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 1354 9833 33878
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 14 9 0
OW 0 0 0 0 2 11 44 0
VODI 0 0 0 4 26 7 33 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 46 27 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 89 137 191 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 91 1429 9766 33879


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