Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-03-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68771 15238 150 625 332 85 4 0
OW 52 468 81 506 285 68 24 0
VODI 0 103 29 489 596 162 54 0
ODI 0 22 8 192 623 284 84 8
CDI 0 6 1 96 623 707 242 86
VCDI 0 0 3 51 571 3385 20358 71576
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69106 14842 153 656 266 79 6 0
OW 52 483 77 541 325 75 16 0
VODI 0 213 35 399 590 185 67 0
ODI 0 42 16 216 525 284 127 0
CDI 0 17 4 135 599 887 260 56
VCDI 0 35 2 131 661 3375 22402 69108
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68903 14929 150 734 217 50 1 0
OW 52 496 54 416 274 37 7 0
VODI 0 219 39 513 655 59 21 0
ODI 0 30 18 248 655 178 49 0
CDI 0 52 7 163 666 732 218 24
VCDI 0 10 0 79 951 4847 22991 67304
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67757 15747 156 740 291 77 0 0
OW 52 449 72 416 346 57 3 0
VODI 0 161 34 458 646 114 22 0
ODI 0 52 9 206 502 251 51 2
CDI 0 36 12 88 560 842 344 84
VCDI 0 86 9 166 715 5126 26947 63362
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67757 15786 164 770 323 73 0 0
OW 52 396 64 393 304 59 2 0
VODI 0 162 32 449 648 117 20 0
ODI 0 52 9 211 517 249 41 2
CDI 0 38 11 71 550 797 293 82
VCDI 0 97 12 180 718 5172 27011 63364

Date: 2020-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67053 15855 194 847 349 89 0 0
OW 52 385 48 521 367 60 10 0
VODI 0 154 29 368 763 157 55 0
ODI 0 39 6 152 512 425 93 0
CDI 0 18 5 81 632 1201 421 38
VCDI 0 85 9 148 708 7416 32649 55054
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67053 15843 191 880 386 82 0 0
OW 52 359 50 479 352 64 6 0
VODI 0 174 26 364 732 162 56 0
ODI 0 44 8 154 507 434 76 0
CDI 0 22 5 86 589 1142 417 49
VCDI 0 94 11 154 765 7464 32673 55043

Date: 2020-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67761 15197 178 787 324 68 0 0
OW 52 394 48 593 306 65 17 0
VODI 0 71 28 475 751 146 29 0
ODI 0 22 7 104 783 418 109 4
CDI 0 14 3 74 721 1457 300 99
VCDI 0 8 1 56 655 5096 31697 58130
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67760 15047 171 835 381 81 5 0
OW 53 400 47 444 309 78 29 0
VODI 0 177 24 424 602 193 61 0
ODI 0 41 11 184 575 325 91 4
CDI 0 25 9 83 652 1112 290 97
VCDI 0 16 3 119 1021 5461 31676 58132

Date: 2020-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68099 14872 197 942 379 78 8 0
OW 52 326 45 526 373 43 10 0
VODI 0 130 31 424 653 131 54 0
ODI 0 28 7 185 842 301 78 0
CDI 0 34 7 110 967 1022 363 63
VCDI 0 28 5 114 679 4475 31346 59021
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68099 14658 185 839 477 94 13 0
OW 52 424 44 419 248 89 39 0
VODI 0 191 30 434 506 145 84 0
ODI 0 71 11 242 796 251 115 0
CDI 0 27 11 166 968 835 421 45
VCDI 0 47 11 201 898 4636 31187 59039

Date: 2020-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66939 15401 218 1127 502 75 1 0
OW 52 320 48 493 471 64 58 0
VODI 0 145 27 339 826 137 65 0
ODI 0 44 11 102 807 329 91 0
CDI 0 22 4 75 775 1418 450 77
VCDI 0 10 2 123 729 5248 30058 59365
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66938 15062 207 1003 537 102 16 0
OW 53 500 41 413 382 76 67 0
VODI 0 211 35 423 671 153 78 0
ODI 0 64 9 142 777 335 109 0
CDI 0 32 13 93 829 1112 511 19
VCDI 0 73 5 185 914 5493 29942 59423


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