Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-03-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68581 14906 191 964 522 129 2 0
OW 52 350 43 429 390 128 15 0
VODI 0 162 20 407 900 204 44 0
ODI 0 42 10 156 572 436 110 0
CDI 0 25 5 91 609 916 504 28
VCDI 0 0 0 50 632 4241 25145 65037
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68572 14851 179 936 516 149 7 0
OW 52 446 44 376 367 124 23 0
VODI 0 196 23 407 722 207 68 0
ODI 0 58 12 145 713 359 125 3
CDI 0 35 9 99 555 781 359 39
VCDI 0 27 7 125 674 3862 22357 68439
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68437 14960 148 690 379 84 4 0
OW 52 493 62 542 261 55 18 0
VODI 0 152 33 472 613 165 57 0
ODI 0 29 15 162 653 744 109 6
CDI 0 15 7 64 613 1486 642 71
VCDI 0 4 0 61 349 3004 23271 68066
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-03-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68771 14867 138 657 385 122 7 0
OW 52 480 75 519 245 80 24 0
VODI 0 136 21 449 648 172 72 0
ODI 0 24 7 130 614 280 140 0
CDI 0 6 3 88 564 974 488 102
VCDI 0 1 2 47 395 3113 20690 71460
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68771 14870 146 733 417 121 6 0
OW 52 457 63 488 270 86 28 0
VODI 0 154 24 396 643 165 73 0
ODI 0 26 8 123 601 295 130 0
CDI 0 5 3 98 520 851 514 109
VCDI 0 2 2 52 400 3223 20670 71453

Date: 2020-03-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69490 14653 143 630 268 65 5 0
OW 52 441 73 572 312 60 23 0
VODI 0 159 36 432 586 165 60 0
ODI 0 33 16 221 564 314 89 0
CDI 0 15 0 113 614 650 188 95
VCDI 0 28 7 145 615 3324 21557 70235
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69490 14633 158 732 341 71 5 0
OW 52 456 55 469 294 62 21 0
VODI 0 160 36 434 568 169 60 0
ODI 0 37 18 217 538 330 82 0
CDI 0 15 1 111 594 635 201 108
VCDI 0 28 7 150 624 3311 21553 70222

Date: 2020-03-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68943 14879 128 604 190 36 1 0
OW 54 565 73 483 223 32 2 0
VODI 0 234 59 687 637 76 18 0
ODI 0 18 2 260 789 254 45 0
CDI 0 17 3 102 709 872 167 58
VCDI 0 9 0 34 730 3891 21202 69962
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68945 14961 155 696 317 84 9 0
OW 52 439 54 524 289 69 20 0
VODI 0 210 32 437 529 189 66 0
ODI 0 68 11 217 505 283 98 0
CDI 0 25 10 131 615 692 232 51
VCDI 0 19 3 165 1023 3844 21010 69969

Date: 2020-03-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68157 15585 128 703 289 85 4 0
OW 52 495 52 363 300 55 13 0
VODI 0 231 48 349 631 82 29 0
ODI 0 76 14 229 502 215 61 0
CDI 0 52 12 131 525 803 364 74
VCDI 0 63 5 136 913 5420 25732 64070
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68157 15543 150 895 501 220 56 0
OW 52 439 39 247 436 117 63 0
VODI 0 292 25 274 535 247 130 0
ODI 0 100 14 159 407 325 194 0
CDI 0 94 19 144 410 628 436 126
VCDI 0 34 12 192 871 5123 25324 64018

Date: 2020-03-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67250 15963 182 826 319 82 1 0
OW 52 376 51 565 328 55 7 0
VODI 0 153 25 387 714 132 28 0
ODI 0 31 9 191 560 309 77 0
CDI 0 25 4 97 610 1053 358 41
VCDI 0 118 8 161 758 6631 29924 58587
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67250 15725 202 1177 777 271 28 0
OW 52 439 23 333 453 213 30 0
VODI 0 328 20 214 522 427 120 0
ODI 0 106 15 149 431 448 141 0
CDI 0 45 15 171 420 864 382 107
VCDI 0 23 4 183 686 6039 29694 58521


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