Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2020-02-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-02-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70777 14292 152 658 279 11 0 0
OW 52 501 45 399 244 18 0 0
VODI 0 199 35 439 474 57 0 0
ODI 0 65 15 209 612 127 2 0
CDI 0 34 5 153 725 418 93 0
VCDI 0 4 0 82 967 3674 8524 4759
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-02-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71086 13857 146 764 343 35 0 0
OW 51 478 41 293 278 63 1 0
VODI 0 213 29 316 396 144 3 0
ODI 0 84 18 203 528 224 78 0
CDI 0 45 8 222 620 508 171 0
VCDI 0 1 1 116 702 2579 8068 6387
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-02-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71047 13834 142 694 283 11 0 0
OW 51 559 49 373 207 31 0 0
VODI 0 243 36 533 448 75 0 0
ODI 0 47 16 189 562 144 4 0
CDI 0 1 3 128 702 463 207 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 633 2955 7946 6448
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-02-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70427 13773 143 729 405 36 0 0
OW 52 598 46 330 205 40 1 0
VODI 0 267 44 425 448 84 6 0
ODI 0 20 14 290 491 119 21 0
CDI 0 17 2 151 692 496 154 2
VCDI 0 0 0 29 803 4369 8633 4738
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70427 13795 144 777 410 38 0 0
OW 52 611 53 310 224 41 1 0
VODI 0 229 35 436 434 82 4 0
ODI 0 22 14 245 503 125 26 0
CDI 0 18 3 156 656 495 165 1
VCDI 0 0 0 30 817 4363 8619 4739

Date: 2020-02-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69401 14565 174 870 505 66 0 0
OW 52 537 43 305 262 58 1 0
VODI 0 179 35 414 435 123 17 0
ODI 0 26 15 231 493 191 36 0
CDI 0 11 2 100 710 399 197 0
VCDI 0 0 1 35 697 2765 7708 7441
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69401 14566 181 908 527 68 0 0
OW 52 507 41 289 251 57 2 0
VODI 0 196 30 389 434 123 15 0
ODI 0 37 13 226 463 175 35 0
CDI 0 11 2 100 695 403 206 0
VCDI 0 1 3 43 732 2776 7701 7441

Date: 2020-02-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68883 15076 171 791 517 40 0 0
OW 51 385 47 375 308 50 0 0
VODI 0 122 45 558 485 108 4 0
ODI 0 7 8 147 547 279 8 0
CDI 0 0 2 56 560 789 112 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 388 3184 8497 6496
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68882 14674 172 864 658 74 0 0
OW 52 569 26 250 273 91 3 0
VODI 0 277 49 395 344 170 8 0
ODI 0 50 16 253 355 240 37 0
CDI 0 14 7 117 526 616 168 2
VCDI 0 6 3 52 649 3259 8405 6494

Date: 2020-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68663 15014 187 914 557 71 1 0
OW 51 307 44 428 336 77 6 0
VODI 0 128 32 401 447 127 17 0
ODI 0 22 8 151 471 210 36 0
CDI 0 1 4 47 567 568 136 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 563 2907 9553 6040
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68662 14687 187 875 675 135 2 0
OW 52 499 27 288 266 141 14 0
VODI 0 234 39 435 334 147 62 0
ODI 0 51 17 213 360 185 75 0
CDI 0 1 5 119 666 529 152 1
VCDI 0 0 0 19 640 2823 9444 6039

Date: 2020-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68581 14823 187 947 521 129 2 0
OW 52 307 37 377 369 128 15 0
VODI 0 133 17 307 557 177 44 0
ODI 0 25 10 118 438 221 63 0
CDI 0 10 5 42 442 519 193 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 360 2643 8475 7803
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68581 14598 185 971 712 221 16 0
OW 52 453 32 267 286 155 50 0
VODI 0 175 23 300 387 191 82 0
ODI 0 61 11 158 451 237 92 0
CDI 0 11 4 84 388 425 191 0
VCDI 0 0 1 34 463 2588 8361 7803


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