Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-02-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-02-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70777 14299 153 661 279 11 0 0
OW 52 510 46 410 244 18 0 0
VODI 0 218 37 459 542 67 0 0
ODI 0 87 17 234 702 169 4 0
CDI 0 57 8 248 822 649 193 27
VCDI 0 64 12 244 1324 6043 24428 62933
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-02-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71086 13866 147 765 343 35 0 0
OW 51 494 42 300 278 63 1 0
VODI 0 244 31 327 463 153 3 0
ODI 0 107 21 227 607 274 79 5
CDI 0 59 12 302 696 810 214 71
VCDI 0 64 11 278 953 4163 23071 66332
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-02-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71047 13869 142 694 283 11 0 0
OW 51 615 50 378 207 31 0 0
VODI 0 314 42 614 502 75 0 0
ODI 0 143 32 281 665 199 5 0
CDI 0 161 14 167 843 754 274 28
VCDI 0 19 3 116 836 4690 21314 67579
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-02-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70427 13811 143 733 405 36 0 0
OW 52 626 46 350 223 40 1 0
VODI 0 341 44 454 545 96 6 0
ODI 0 88 25 319 597 206 33 1
CDI 0 109 16 252 763 749 332 105
VCDI 0 136 15 163 1072 6532 22434 64722
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70427 13830 144 788 413 38 0 0
OW 52 639 53 326 248 41 1 0
VODI 0 300 35 460 538 96 4 0
ODI 0 74 21 270 590 206 34 0
CDI 0 128 21 256 723 736 326 103
VCDI 0 140 15 171 1093 6542 22441 64725

Date: 2020-02-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69401 14611 174 872 505 66 0 0
OW 52 591 43 331 266 58 1 0
VODI 0 250 35 475 529 123 17 0
ODI 0 82 16 334 587 247 38 0
CDI 0 98 11 147 854 535 232 91
VCDI 0 182 23 230 977 4808 20204 68952
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69401 14609 181 917 527 68 0 0
OW 52 544 41 311 257 57 2 0
VODI 0 288 30 485 516 123 15 0
ODI 0 99 14 286 576 224 38 0
CDI 0 85 8 128 813 529 236 100
VCDI 0 189 28 262 1029 4836 20201 68943

Date: 2020-02-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68883 15203 172 817 518 40 0 0
OW 51 615 59 460 314 50 0 0
VODI 0 286 61 710 611 112 4 0
ODI 0 105 21 270 711 346 25 0
CDI 0 157 18 136 753 1142 218 16
VCDI 0 19 4 39 584 5086 20285 68147
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68882 14731 173 874 658 74 0 0
OW 52 702 28 280 275 91 3 0
VODI 0 502 66 510 440 188 8 0
ODI 0 131 25 338 423 308 46 0
CDI 0 105 10 181 660 771 263 28
VCDI 0 214 33 249 1035 5344 20212 68135

Date: 2020-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68663 15096 191 962 557 71 1 0
OW 51 428 68 564 353 77 6 0
VODI 0 175 43 604 632 142 17 4
ODI 0 36 11 260 688 325 46 4
CDI 0 25 8 201 866 947 273 146
VCDI 0 0 0 38 786 5142 22254 66287
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68662 14738 189 883 675 135 2 0
OW 52 553 33 331 266 141 14 0
VODI 0 378 64 680 435 152 62 3
ODI 0 75 27 334 521 279 81 4
CDI 0 15 8 255 889 800 236 78
VCDI 0 1 0 146 1096 5197 22202 66356

Date: 2020-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68581 14906 191 964 522 129 2 0
OW 52 350 43 429 390 128 15 0
VODI 0 162 20 407 900 204 44 0
ODI 0 42 10 156 572 436 110 0
CDI 0 25 5 91 609 916 504 28
VCDI 0 0 0 50 632 4241 25145 65037
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68581 14662 188 974 712 221 16 0
OW 52 505 32 286 286 155 50 0
VODI 0 230 33 428 565 211 82 0
ODI 0 73 11 209 671 348 100 1
CDI 0 15 4 129 613 766 417 19
VCDI 0 0 1 71 778 4353 25155 65045


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