Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-02-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-02-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70678 14336 151 540 223 38 0 0
OW 52 511 66 444 257 24 0 0
VODI 0 150 40 523 535 142 4 0
ODI 0 42 9 200 680 236 101 0
CDI 0 23 7 91 655 694 234 16
VCDI 0 0 2 58 1044 5476 26763 62003
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-02-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70736 14274 142 587 182 7 0 0
OW 52 564 66 439 241 22 0 0
VODI 0 206 58 468 510 154 17 0
ODI 0 71 20 256 591 172 96 0
CDI 0 15 5 188 685 664 145 15
VCDI 0 4 1 56 1123 5480 24136 64600
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-02-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70392 14540 164 750 271 38 0 0
OW 53 445 59 485 300 23 0 0
VODI 0 273 46 401 493 88 3 0
ODI 0 136 17 251 567 225 36 0
CDI 0 42 10 242 673 658 260 63
VCDI 0 8 3 265 1153 4980 23462 65173
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-02-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70766 14251 136 694 311 14 0 0
OW 54 550 49 403 232 22 0 0
VODI 0 244 47 461 498 75 0 0
ODI 0 145 11 200 643 186 1 0
CDI 0 129 13 151 786 800 139 13
VCDI 0 93 16 306 1092 6319 23520 63678
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70767 14282 142 754 317 21 0 0
OW 53 541 49 376 248 22 0 0
VODI 0 225 43 427 514 77 0 0
ODI 0 131 8 197 636 204 2 0
CDI 0 144 13 141 750 791 174 12
VCDI 0 89 17 320 1097 6301 23484 63679

Date: 2020-02-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71213 13948 139 637 287 20 0 0
OW 51 487 52 346 256 32 0 0
VODI 0 239 33 404 476 101 2 0
ODI 0 78 20 233 629 211 41 0
CDI 0 51 7 267 810 708 237 68
VCDI 0 57 13 219 1369 4822 23596 64889
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71213 14030 154 661 290 25 0 0
OW 51 407 36 323 249 35 0 0
VODI 0 221 31 396 516 100 6 0
ODI 0 93 20 229 637 226 47 0
CDI 0 53 11 216 714 709 225 80
VCDI 0 56 12 281 1421 4799 23598 64877

Date: 2020-02-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71072 13873 129 602 280 25 0 0
OW 51 682 74 437 219 28 0 0
VODI 0 263 49 611 661 91 0 0
ODI 0 61 20 290 793 303 16 1
CDI 0 61 6 170 839 943 267 78
VCDI 0 8 1 31 599 3816 21269 68329
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71072 13821 151 687 392 63 0 0
OW 51 477 46 311 236 82 2 0
VODI 0 282 23 332 456 150 45 0
ODI 0 142 17 241 629 251 101 3
CDI 0 105 20 224 649 749 197 103
VCDI 0 121 22 346 1029 3911 21207 68302

Date: 2020-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70676 13811 144 717 361 17 0 0
OW 58 599 51 379 241 27 0 0
VODI 0 329 45 507 512 86 0 0
ODI 0 214 21 302 636 219 16 0
CDI 0 185 9 112 785 1004 254 73
VCDI 0 97 11 136 789 6764 21299 65562
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70675 13611 144 731 501 44 0 0
OW 57 573 39 263 240 80 2 0
VODI 2 355 35 472 415 155 12 0
ODI 0 147 22 275 554 264 64 0
CDI 0 169 9 140 708 912 249 74
VCDI 0 380 32 272 906 6662 21242 65561

Date: 2020-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70236 13970 156 790 405 45 0 0
OW 52 607 41 319 253 37 1 0
VODI 0 321 44 416 543 102 9 0
ODI 0 78 19 251 649 205 29 0
CDI 0 84 12 213 720 707 259 134
VCDI 0 163 27 149 1081 5746 23967 64208
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70236 13804 156 827 616 79 2 0
OW 52 567 33 226 240 76 5 0
VODI 0 296 35 379 449 129 30 0
ODI 0 167 15 230 490 263 105 20
CDI 0 87 19 167 699 747 296 235
VCDI 0 302 41 309 1157 5548 23827 64087


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