Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2020-01-30

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-02-03

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 12 5 20 5 0 0 0
OW 0 12 6 21 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 51 47 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 73 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 91 77 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 162 1670 9142 25437
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 13 4 17 4 0 0 0
OW 0 2 3 12 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 4 38 27 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 20 39 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 44 17 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 272 1732 9146 25437

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 353 2778
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 353 2769

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9982
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9982

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 28 910 4714
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 28 910 4712

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 63
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 33 1119 6020
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 70
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 32 1121 6013

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 9 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 146 1208 3953
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 147 1214 3953

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 5 3 19 2 25 22 6
VCDI 0 0 0 171 131 256 4422 1269
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 9 4 25 24 6
VCDI 0 3 2 181 129 256 4420 1269

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3190 3385 29 86 41 21 0 0
OW 0 310 19 124 49 24 0 0
VODI 0 291 37 212 123 37 4 0
ODI 0 88 8 180 282 71 5 0
CDI 0 38 5 113 191 217 48 0
VCDI 0 0 1 61 151 696 1194 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3190 3419 22 97 51 25 0 0
OW 0 277 23 65 42 21 4 0
VODI 0 254 30 186 75 37 5 0
ODI 0 104 14 163 164 61 9 0
CDI 0 52 6 149 244 106 55 0
VCDI 0 6 4 116 261 816 1178 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5261 3546 16 56 0 0 0 0
OW 0 143 16 73 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 54 12 139 62 0 0 0
ODI 0 15 4 38 142 32 0 0
CDI 0 7 1 35 125 121 25 0
VCDI 0 0 1 5 80 481 1150 45
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5261 3475 16 69 0 0 0 0
OW 0 159 13 57 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 83 12 90 63 1 0 0
ODI 0 30 4 60 77 17 0 0
CDI 0 13 4 37 69 62 0 0
VCDI 0 5 1 33 192 554 1175 45

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8754 3012 26 90 88 33 0 0
OW 0 109 16 49 11 8 0 0
VODI 0 18 11 85 76 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 82 53 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 26 148 137 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 15 115 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8754 3021 34 123 109 44 0 0
OW 0 86 8 37 54 12 0 0
VODI 0 32 9 40 32 76 15 0
ODI 0 0 2 23 32 49 66 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 43 31 137 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 56 41 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 41 4 14 5 0 0 0
OW 0 12 3 16 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 1 21 42 10 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 6 34 27 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 11 31 48 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 50 383 2600 2403
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 33 2 12 9 0 0 0
OW 0 6 5 11 15 2 0 0
VODI 0 10 0 16 23 18 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 9 17 19 0 0
CDI 0 7 2 9 22 25 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 89 404 2604 2403

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 9 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 34 86 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 612 5788 2053
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 20 36 17
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 635 5841 2038

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12201 3960 33 129 4 0 0 0
OW 3 132 28 225 73 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 9 206 187 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 266 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 294 211 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 196 1392 592 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12201 3891 32 139 10 0 0 0
OW 3 144 13 142 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 67 18 149 95 1 0 0
ODI 0 5 7 123 163 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 373 135 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 324 1474 592 0


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